Nov 6, 2018 - Midterms *MEGA* Thread

[Felya]

Nate Silver....Adam's the NBA commish

Oh god damn it... it’s not like I was refreshing a page with his name for hours... /facepalm

[Thepersona]

Sinema is up by 9k votes right now

[D Luniz]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACapu...54559612289024

Hey! A box of votes got left behind. Some people are worried about "chain of custody" and "past the deadline", but maybe just count them anyway?

seeing they do seal those envelopes until the voter proves their right to vote, yes, they get counted

[Xeones]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MarcACapu...54559612289024

Hey! A box of votes got left behind. Some people are worried about "chain of custody" and "past the deadline", but maybe just count them anyway?

Oh hey cool guess what kind of county this always happens in? Not a red one.

[Rasulis]

Fresno is going to Fresno.

The problem is that the only major metropolitan area in Nunes district (CA-22) is the city of Fresno. Which is pretty blue. The western half is in CA-16 (Dem). The eastern half of the city of Fresno by itself is not enough to swing CA-22 blue.

The easiest way to turn CA-22 blue to build another Cal State campus. Visalia is perfect. It is the only city in Central Valley with over 100k population without its own 4-year college. Ask Issa what happened when they put Palomar College in his district.

[Dacien]

Oh hey cool guess what kind of county this always happens in? Not a red one.

Good point.

Edit: this is tongue in cheek, btw. Not accusing Democrats of anything.

[Adam Jensen]

That's really a shame - you would think professional politicians would get that fairly simple concept. You aren't going to win as Green, and you're going to Ross Perot the Republican into office.

Fucking idiots.

This is why y'all need to catch up to Maine and get ranked voting. It keeps third parties from spoiling things. If they lose, their votes get shifted to other candidates.

For example in Maine, while we wait for the votes between Golden and Poliquin to finalize (it's still not done, with Golden (D), about 0.5% behind,) we have two Indies who lost with about 5% each. Some of those votes will be divided up between Golden and Poliquin, so there's no spoiler effect.

[cubby]

This is why y'all need to catch up to Maine and get ranked voting. It keeps third parties from spoiling things. If they lose, their votes get shifted to other candidates.

For example in Maine, while we wait for the votes between Golden and Poliquin to finalize (it's still not done, with Golden (D), about 0.5% behind,) we have two Indies who lost with about 5% each. Some of those votes will be divided up between Golden and Poliquin, so there's no spoiler effect.

One more thing to add to the National Voting Act. Great idea.

[Adam Jensen]

One more thing to add to the National Voting Act. Great idea.

Apply it correctly and apply it everywhere, it has the potential to bring down the two party system and allow for more parties and more choices. It's a great system. And when Golden or Poliquin win, they'll be the first ranked choice votes in America.

While technically, it was also used for our Senate race, District 1 Rep (not my district) and Governor, in those cases, the candidate won with more than 50% in the first round, so ranked choice didn't come into play.

[Gray_Matter]

Yet Trumpettes like Nunes still won.

You should look at the swing in that district. It went from R+35 to R+12 between 2016 and 2018. That's a 25 point swing.

The Democrats could have won more seats but they nominated some poor candidates in some areas. For example, they could have chosen an ex Navy Seal to race against Hunter in CA50 but they chose a guy who was very very progressive. His grandfather was involved with the Israeli Olympics incident and while it's completely unfair to hold that against him, there are probably some people in the R+27 district who would have held that against him. With the blue wave, the Navy Seal (Butler) would have had a chance and probably would have even won after the Hunter indictments but the Democrats are 8% down with very little chance of winning now. It makes a lot of sense for progressives to push through highly progressive candidates in very blue areas but they should try not to do the same with historically conservative areas. The same happened with Eastman. She was too progressive for the district.

[Flarelaine]

It's not a win. They're lying out of their ass to save face.

It was a decisive defeat.

For Supreme Court purposes, strengthening their hold on the Senate is a win. RBG may have gotten away with broken ribs this time, but she is 85 and the vultures have been circling. There were always voices about going after Roe vs. Wade and all that stuff. And they probably plan to use it to protect their gerrymandered maps and Trump's shady financial deals as well. They want to stop time, at the least, and rewind it if possible.

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Yet Trumpettes like Nunes still won.

Eh, his district is pretty red.

[Omega10]

Imo she should have retired during Obama's tenure. Now you all should cross fingers and pray she makes it to 2020. And as soon as Democrats have 51 Senators and the Presidency she should retire and be replaced by someone in their mid 40s at most.

More likely we'll have to figure out ways to work around the Supreme Court. It will be against us for at least a generation.

[Benggaul]

Just pack it. The Supreme Court being so out of sync with the population is a travesty. There should be a clear 1 seat advantage on the progressive side because that is what best represents the US population. Expand it to 11 and if RBG cannot manage and they get a 6-3 court, then go for a 6-7 court (and make sure to pack it with people who can stay there for three decades).

Or, you know, limit their terms because anyone being appointed for life is still fucking ridiculous. Times change and people need to change with them. People ensconced in cozy little lifetime appointments tend to lose touch with reality and the will of the public.

[Omega10]

Just pack it. The Supreme Court being so out of sync with the population is a travesty. There should be a clear 1 seat advantage on the progressive side because that is what best represents the US population. Expand it to 11 and if RBG cannot manage and they get a 6-3 court, then go for a 6-7 court (and make sure to pack it with people who can stay there for three decades).

With luck we'll only have to pack it once. We must never ever ever lose the Senate again.

On the other hand, in order to bring all this crap around, republicans did a LOT of rule-changing, cheating, and voter suppression to bring this about. In the past, it was considered "safe" to vote republican because they more or less continued the long standing traditions that had endured for decades, and mostly followed the rules.

The fact that the White House released a DOCTORED VIDEO and presented it as fact is just a small sign of just how corrupt and dishonest the republican party has become. A court order to not count remaining mailed in votes in Arizona??? REALLY???

I would generally frown on packing the court. However, in its current form, the republican party is so dangerous to the health of the US that I am 100% for it.

[Flarelaine]

Imo she should have retired during Obama's tenure. Now you all should cross fingers and pray she makes it to 2020. And as soon as Democrats have 51 Senators and the Presidency she should retire and be replaced by someone in their mid 40s at most.

I suppose she was not in a hurry during Obama's first half-term... after which the GOP had the Senate, so of course she decided to hang on. Right now, it's just like you say.

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People ensconced in cozy little lifetime appointments tend to lose touch with reality and the will of the public.

Actually, disregarding the will of the public is kinda the whole point of life terms. They should not answer to the masses, only to the law. And it worked mostly that way for two centuries, ultimately.

[Flarelaine]

If the public wants the law changed, then the law should change. That's what it is there for.

Yes, but there is supposed to be another avenue for that. It was never meant to be the job of the judiciary. The House is unwilling, you say - and that is precisely because they have limited terms and at least one eye on re-election.

[Omega10]

That's their problem. It should not mean that unelected judges should get to make law. Yes, even if that meant that the US would never get abortion because Democrats are spineless.

Goal number 1: Get the democrats in power.

Goal number 2: Replace corporate owned democrats by democrats that "have a spine" and will put money in the hands of middle class and working class Americans.


Goal number 2 is the important one. But until Goal number 1 is in place, goal number 2 is irrelevant.


<IMHO, the "Democrats being spineless" is an intentional thing done by the corporate wing of the democratic party. The plan is to vote against republican ideas that are going to pass anyways.>

[Omega10]

Here is the thing. It's probably easier to primary corporate stooges when the party is struggling than to do so when the party is certain.

New York is one example of this happening already. On the state level, 6 corporate stooges for the state legislature were primaried and defeated. In 2018, there were a few high profile cases of corporate stooges being successfully primaried, and from what I can tell the people primarying all won their general election. So primarying will be a long term goal, which should continue in 2020, and which needs to continue on into the future.

[Omega10]

What I am saying is, if the Democrats get comfortable again, it won't happen. It can only happen now because they are on their toes.

YES 100% AGREED. We need to repeat this line OVER and OVER and OVER, and not stop. YES we ARE on our toes now. And making sure we all STAY on our toes is going to be ... challenging. 2020 is a long ways away.

[yetgdhfgh]

OH WOW

THE DEMOCRATS COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF TAKING ARIZONA SENATE SEAT!!

THough i railed against the spoiler from the green party it looks like the Democrat Sinema could take the seat

https://www.azcentral.com/data/elect...ectionsresults

She is now leading by nearly 10k votes with about less than 0.44 percent left to count !

Yes this will go to recount but wow this is truly the upset of the night if a Democrat can take a republican senate seat after nearly 30 years!!