[Breaking News] US base in Iraq struck by Iranian and Iraqi militia missiles.

[Elegiac]

Not sure how it could be. Our laundry room's machines never worked. A missile strike would have been an improvement.

Mood for 2020: The inherent eroticism of a missile strike.

[Thekri]

Not sure how it could be. Our laundry room's machines never worked. A missile strike would have been an improvement.

Ours worked fine until they got hit by a rocket. Then not so much. Maybe you were the next unit that came in after us.

[Tierbook]

A Ukrainian Jet went down while leaving Tehran in the middle of all this. Within a few minutes Iran had declared it a technical error but based off some videos of the crash it might have been accidentally shot down by AA.

[Elegiac]

A Ukrainian Jet went down while leaving Tehran in the middle of all this. Within a few minutes Iran had declared it a technical error but based off some videos of the crash it might have been accidentally shot down by AA.

You ever get the impression the gods are telling us the current ruler does not have the Mandate of Heaven?

Just a thought.

[Thekri]

Damn a Ukrainian 737 'crashing' outside of Tehran isn't a good look given the timing.

https://twitter.com/alihashem_tv/sta...56252749877250

Shit was full on engulfed in flames and breaking apart as it descended... That had to be quite the 'technical difficulty' Iran state media is describing it to have suffered...

I am very skeptical of that. The plane should have gone down in daylight, why does it look pitch black? Sunrise in Tehran was over an hour ago.

[Kellhound]

Not sure how it could be. Our laundry room's machines never worked. A missile strike would have been an improvement.

One of the major advantages of being stationed on a carrier, we always had clean clothes (and hot food, showers, and A/C....)

[Thekri]

I am very skeptical of that. The plane should have gone down in daylight, why does it look pitch black? Sunrise in Tehran was over an hour ago.

(I Know I am quoting myself)

After looking at it a bit more I retract it, that video actually seems legit. I was confused as to the timing of the airliner crash.

This looks VERY much like it was shot down, which makes tonight a lot worse. I highly doubt it was anything sinister, I suspect that Iranian Anti-Aircraft crews were fully expecting an incoming strike, which would be very logical to expect in that timeframe, and opened fire on a low flying target as it passed over the city. Most likely an extremely tragic accident, I don't expect any survivors if that footage is legit.

[Tierbook]

I am very skeptical of that. The plane should have gone down in daylight, why does it look pitch black? Sunrise in Tehran was over an hour ago.

The image might have just been a missile failure, we are getting images of the plane's debris though



Assuming this is in fact the plane (reverse image search turns up nothing /shrug) the large debris field points towards a mid-air break-up like you'd expect from being shot down rather than a technical error in an engine.

[Breccia]

Lindsey Graham was just retweeted by Individual-Fatass-One about a dozen times in the last week. Check for yourself, not linking that.

With that backdrop: Lindsey Graham just called this "an act of war".

I want every man, woman, child, toddler, and Trump supporter to look back at literally everything Trump has done since Sept 2015.

Now the last few days.
1) US airstrike
2) Iran sets US embassy on fucking fire
3) Trump assassinates a general
4) Iran fires missiles at a US base

Based on Trump's proven words and actions, is there any reason to believe Trump will do anything other than escalate?

[Poe]

What a fucking coincidence that a plane crashes outside the Iran capital on today of all days.

[I Push Buttons]

I am very skeptical of that. The plane should have gone down in daylight, why does it look pitch black? Sunrise in Tehran was over an hour ago.

If it is the flight purported in the comments of that Twitter post (Ukraine Int. Airlines flight PS752), it says it took off at 6:12am local time. Google says sunrise in Tehran was at 7:15am.

[Tierbook]

Lindsey Graham was just retweeted by Individual-Fatass-One about a dozen times in the last week. Check for yourself, not linking that.

With that backdrop: Lindsey Graham just called this "an act of war".

I want every man, woman, child, toddler, and Trump supporter to look back at literally everything Trump has done since Sept 2015.

Now the last few days.
1) US airstrike
2) Iran sets US embassy on fucking fire
3) Trump assassinates a general
4) Iran fires missiles at a US base

Based on Trump's proven words and actions, is there any reason to believe Trump will do anything other than escalate?

Trump seemed content based off his last tweet before he went back to sleep. Now the plane if it was in fact shot down MIGHT change things if there were Americans on board but it's way to early to say.

[Kellhound]

The image might have just been a missile failure, we are getting images of the plane's debris though

Assuming this is in fact the plane (reverse image search turns up nothing /shrug) the large debris field points towards a mid-air break-up like you'd expect from being shot down rather than a technical error in an engine.

It also looks like a good portion of the wreckage was on fire before it hit the ground, lots of charred metal but little evidence of ground fires.

[Breccia]

Oh, and everyone saw this coming. Even Trump.

Thursday’s strike against Soleimani triggered concerns about the potential for destabilizing consequences in the Middle East and has complicated U.S. policy in Iraq, whose parliament voted earlier this week to end the presence of American troops.

Trump administration officials have defended the strike amid scrutiny, citing what they have called strong evidence of threats to Americans without going into detail about the actual intelligence because of national security concerns. Iran had vowed a harsh response for Soleimani’s death.

Defense Secretary Mark Esper said at a briefing earlier Tuesday that the U.S. “should expect Iran will retaliate in some way, shape or form” and encouraged Iran to “de-escalate.”

And he did it anyway. The fat orange imbecile started a war for ratings.

[Tierbook]

Oh, and everyone saw this coming. Even Trump.



And he did it anyway. The fat orange imbecile started a war for ratings.

I mean it's not as if this is new, basically everything in the ME is tit-for-tat if you don't think they'll respond you probably are new to the area, the question is what level of response it'll be.

[Thekri]

It also looks like a good portion of the wreckage was on fire before it hit the ground, lots of charred metal but little evidence of ground fires.

Yeah, that initial video seems to have been legit, it shows the plane on fire with a major explosion just before it hit the ground.

Here is the flight tracker for that flight. It climbed to about 8,000 feet, and suddenly stopped transmitting. No abnormalities in rate of climb or speed until it just stopped reporting.

That isn't a technical error, that is a missile strike.

[StillMcfuu]

Russia is not going to be involved directly, true. Because their actual open military involvement would be cataclysmic to all sides involved. We are talking about nuclear superpowers after all. But that does not mean they will turn down this opportunity to sell lots and lots of weapons at a bargain price and bloody US's nose indirectly.
China will wait, as usual, that is likely correct.
The main problem is that you can not defeat Iran without boots on the ground. I do not know how many tens or hundreds of thousands of lives an invasion and subsequent occupation of Iran would cost to the US, but my guess is that they are going to dwarf Vietnam. And no one in their right mind would be willing to pitch in, to throw their own people into that grinder. Israel simply does not have the manpower. All they can do is lend their airfields and assist with aerial strikes. The same goes for Kuwait (whose male population is like a million total, with a couple of thousand of soldiers in armed forces, the rest being contract workers and women) and SA (whose army consists of mercenaries almost exclusively). Iraq and Lebanon are in turmoil. Going to war is not an option for them, lest their countries fall apart completely.
In any case, if shit hits the fan, no participant will stay clean. And we should not forget that as a last resort, even if Iran does not have nukes, they do have free access to nuclear material. A dirt bomb can be just as scary.

I don't think that Iraq, Lebanon, or Kuwait would throw in with us, at least outside of any kind of token gesture. But they were mentioned as Iranian ally, which they really aren't.
I know it's a meme that Trump is a warmonger, but his actions cut a different picture. We've endured numerous acts of aggression from Iran in 18 and 19 and we've done little outside of tightening restrictions on them. After the missile attack and the embassy incident, killing Soleimani was an intelligent strike. The only negative aspect of it was it was potentially perfidy, but there has been zero news after that idea was floated.
Iran's jumped off the deep end and their ridiculous "if you defend/retaliate in us after we do whatever it is we are going to do, we will attack these 2 uninvolved countries" statement isn't going to win them any allies nor net them support.
I don't want to see this go the way of the Gulf Wars, but if Iran continues to be ... childish as it has, it may.
Iran is a major stabilizing force in that part of the world, a boots on the ground war would be worse than Iraq, in terms of regional stability. But that doesn't mean that a 72 hour flattening of every strategic and military asset we know Iran has would be a bad idea. I think that is the worst direction this could head, outside of the international sanctions Iran will definitely face (for the Iranian population).

Point being, it doesn't matter who Iran's potential allies are or if Russia wants to play cutesy games and face even more sanctions, the whole conflict will be over very quickly. If the Ayatollah is anything like Saddam, he is probably moving women and children into strategic and military buildings so he can try to claim a moral high ground when it's all over.

[Breccia]

I don't think that Iraq, Lebanon, or Kuwait would throw in with us

Iraq has made it abundantly clear they want nothing to do with us. And they made that clear before Iran started firing missiles.

Kuwait might donate some money.

I haven't the foggiest what Lebanon would do, but I'm not sure what kind of message we'd give by receiving their help anyhow.

[Gaaz]

Well they already announced they didn't kill any Americans. We don't know if they hit American bases or not, if you look back toward the beginning of the thread you will see why I pointed out that even landing missiles on military bases isn't particularly likely to cause casualties, we have bunkers and lots of defense mechanisms. So maybe they missed, or maybe they hit and blew up random equipment (My Second Deployment rockets blew up our laundry room, which was extremely annoying).

As for why they didn't cause casualties, well that is speculation. Maybe the Iranian military isn't nearly as good as it claims. Kind of like the Iraqi military, which we know was good enough to fight Iran to standstill, but crumbled instantly to Western militaries. Maybe governments that build missiles primarily to parade them through the streets don't care as much what goes inside those missiles.

Or maybe they are as good as they say, and they missed on purpose. Because they had to do something, so they don't look weak, but they also didn't want to cause major casualties which would guarantee a war. They didn't shoot at the major US bases in Kuwait or the UAE. They didn't shoot at US Warships in the Persian Gulf. They didn't really shoot at anything that is actually a threat to them, they shot at the bases that launched the attack that killed Sulemanei. They wanted to send a message, and now that message has been sent.

Either of those could be true. Hell, both of those could be true. We really don't know.

Unless I have very misleading experience with the rest of the Middle East, chances are that Iran's military indeed is not as good as it claims to be. But what they lack in quality, they really make up in quantity.
My guess is that they simply missed. As for defense mechanisms, I would really not count on them to be effective in this case. Remember Riyadh’s King Khalid Airport attack by Houthis, or the one launched a couple of weeks later. And then there is shit that surfaces from time to time: https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a344634.pdf

"There is little evidence to prove that the Patriot hit more than a few Scud missiles launched by Iraq during the Gulf War, and there are some doubts about even these engagements.”

That is a follow up investigation after military claimed they shot down 90%+ something of incoming missiles.

[arandomuser]

now while i dont support this war, if it even goes to war, depends on how trumps response is, but its from the guy who campaigned on carpet bombing and nuking the middle east, so dont expect diplomacy, it is mind boggling to see the trumpers who were "trumps kept us out of a mideastern war" twist themselves to go back in time to the 2003 " saddam hussein is a bad guy, therefore if your against his removal you are in fact a saddam hussein supporter and terrorist sympathizer" I think trumpers dont even know anything about foreign policy or relations except they think islam bad and thats it, no more nuance needed, they are sold on a new war. Tucker got praise for his segment against it even though it was for the wrong reason,( he thinks we should be nuking mexico instead) But give it a week and i guarentee tucker will be like "we need to topple khamenei or muslims win"