I read
this Axios article about what's now more and more sarcastically called "Trump's peace plan". Based on this, now that I'm done shitting on the results, rather than flush and walk away, I should turn around and piss on it.
1) This is just what Netanyahu wanted, which in turn is just what Trump wanted: a reason to begin a military conflict to resist being pulled from power because of all that stuff he did.
2) Axios says Netanyahu, by virtue of being directly told it was okay by Trump, is prepared to go ahead with the West Bank annexations
which Palestine has not agreed to as early as Sunday. Regardless of the obvious tragedy of throwing people out of their homes by force, if only one person signs the contract, it's not a contract. It's a wish list.
But what such a green light will do, is give Netanyahu more power amongst the increasingly right-wing Israeli voters, who will see uniformed soldiers hurling unarmed brown people over a Wall and cheer for more.
3) The Palestinians have been given peace plans before in which they kept all of the West Bank, not the currently offered 70%. They rejected all of those. There is zero reason to believe they'll accept this one.
4) Here's the big one: Trump basically ruined everything by the embassy move. That's still not in dispute, just ask the Palestinians. Thing is, that move is reversible. In 20201 President Warren could say "that was stupid, move it back" and thusly it would be so. Annexing West Bank settlements is far harder to undo. Even though the US is now firmly in the category of "countries who unilaterally break treaties and expect everyone else to agree to that", telling Israel in a year "you have to move back out and return those houses you burned and bulldozed" will be met with a firm "no" and probably a middle finger. If annexations go forward as basically everyone says they will, even though (again) Palestine didn't sign that shit, it's pretty much irreversible. Like my raincoat.
It should be noted that Trump has already touted his great success (lol) by saying no other administration came close to this. He's right: no other administration came up with a peace plan that just gave Israel everything, then called it a day. No other administration would have called that a deal. That's like, I dunno, hiring workers for a contractually agreed upon fee, then not paying them.
5) And finally, considering that Israel is probably just going to follow the part of Trump's deal that benefit them whether anyone else signs or not, the end result will be the Palestinians and, likely, an increasingly large number of their Syrian, Iranian, Yemeni and Iraqi friends, engaging in "protests" so vigorous you'll see the smoke and hear the blasts from the EU.
This was never a peace plan. This is going to have the opposite effect. And Trump will give that stupid smile and wave a blank sheet of paper while people die because of his words and actions.