Mega-Thread: Democratic 2020 Primaries

[Flarelaine]

I feel the thread is going off the rails with personal attacks. Please discuss the topic - events, polls, odds, endorsements and suchlike - with less vitriol and maybe just a little more decorum.

[Ghostpanther]

The dem establishment shot themselves in the foot when it comes to picking the candidate with the best chance to beat Trump. They've stated countless times beating Trump is the #1 goal. If they're being honest then this means they'd vote for Sanders if he's the nominee. Warren had a shot but it looks like political "experts" led her down a dumb path.

So right off the bat we can go ahead and count all of those establishment dems as being in the bag. Now, who do else do we need to motivate to come out and vote? People that don't normally vote for candidates like Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar (aka Hillary). Who would be best at bringing out people that don't normally vote for candidates like Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar? A candidate that isn't Biden, Buttigieg, or Klobuchar.

I don't really count Bloomberg in this discussion since he's really a republican that's going to rise and fall after most voters actually learn about him.

If your #1 issue is winning then the choice is simple. You need to support Sanders. If your #1 issue is maintaining the status quo while beating Trump by a smaller margin (or not at all) then sure vote for someone like Buttigieg.

Some good points. A Obama reelection official, has stated more than once, that none of the Democrat. candidates can beat Trump. He restated it recently, that the front runners are not electable. Even Sanders. He has very strong support from the young generation, but it is the older generation which generally have the best voter turn out on average and they are not as a whole, going to vote for him.

That is not to say he has a zero chance of beating Trump however. The issue for him, is not the national popular vote, but the electoral votes needed.

[Mihalik]

I feel the thread is going off the rails with personal attacks. Please discuss the topic - events, polls, odds, endorsements and suchlike - with less vitriol and maybe just a little more decorum.

Perhaps. Just saying as a thought for consideration, maybe, just maybe, if moderation infracted people who specifically say that they will be shitposting and trolling a more civilized conversation would be possible, you know without the constant flamebaits.

[Saucexorzski]

Perhaps. Just saying as a thought for consideration, maybe, just maybe, if moderation infracted people who specifically say that they will be shitposting and trolling a more civilized conversation would be possible, you know without the constant flamebaits.

hes treating the bernie supporters as you all have been treating right wingers on these boards for years. i sympathise with you all, it sure does suck to be constantly misrepresented.

[Milchshake]

Who said it better: Trump or Bernie supporters?

• Trying to convince everyone that factual criticisms are "trolling" or a "witch hunt".
• Playing victim when confronted by facts?

Pointing out factual criticisms always makes them angry. Sorry, but ignoring them wont make them go away.

Bernie has not been vetted in a national election. I'm happy to be the one to move this process along.
Yes, really unvetted:

• The GOP has left him alone because Bernie is a useful wedge to divide the the young left. See "both sides are the same."
• Clinton left him alone, because she didnt want to alienate his supporters in the general.
• Bernie lacks support among the Dems most consistent constituencies. See the previously shown graphs, he hasnt attracted much new blood.
• Minority support is critical for swing states. See Virginia, North Carolina, 2018 midterms.
• Bernie in his long career in congress has demonstrated a consistent lack in building coalitions. He doesnt seem interested.
• The left is way more fractious. A disinterest in coalition building is a structural flaw.
  
• So far his support has shrunk over the past 4 years. The first 2 races show him at half his 2016 levels.
• Too many of his supporters are openly hostile to Dems. This will kill down ballot races. Risking the 2018 gains and the senate.
• Whomever holds office in 2021 will have a massive rebuilding project ahead of them. They're going to need a lot of allies. They're going to need technocratic experts to help with the heavy lifting.

Also, "shitposting" is comically hard to define. The BBC famously tried to explain it, just leaving more people confused.
For me, shitposting are truths with a nice dressing of snark. My godmother was a drag queen, throwing shade is what we do

Again, some people always confuse critical truths for "witch hunts". These people are typically cultics or some form of autocrat.

[bmjclark]

New Poll out in Texas shows Bernie leading Biden by 2 points. This is the only poll that's been conducted in Texas that I can find since Iowa, at which point Biden lead Bernie by 17 points. Bernie may very well win some of these big states that he was expected to lose big in.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...imary-d/texas/

Also, buttigieg continues to poll poorly everywhere except Iowa and New hampshire. Apparently having like 3% support among black people hurts you a bit outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, who'd have thought.

[Blade Wolf]

So far his support has shrunk over the past 4 years. The first 2 races show him at half his 2016 levels.

You know you are comparing a 10man race to a 2man race?

[Telogrus]

New Poll out in Texas shows Bernie leading Biden by 2 points. This is the only poll that's been conducted in Texas that I can find since Iowa, at which point Biden lead Bernie by 17 points. Bernie may very well win some of these big states that he was expected to lose big in.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...imary-d/texas/

Also, buttigieg continues to poll poorly everywhere except Iowa and New hampshire. Apparently having like 3% support among black people hurts you a bit outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, who'd have thought.

New Nevada poll shows Bernie at 25, Biden at 18, and Buttigieg at 10. Buttigieg has one of his staffers in charge of voter protection though, so don’t be shocked if Buttigieg has a “miraculous” showing.

[jeezusisacasual]

New Poll out in Texas shows Bernie leading Biden by 2 points. This is the only poll that's been conducted in Texas that I can find since Iowa, at which point Biden lead Bernie by 17 points. Bernie may very well win some of these big states that he was expected to lose big in.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...imary-d/texas/

Also, buttigieg continues to poll poorly everywhere except Iowa and New hampshire. Apparently having like 3% support among black people hurts you a bit outside of Iowa and New Hampshire, who'd have thought.

I would clearly be shocked beyond belief if Bernie either wins or gets 2nd in Texas. I said something similar to a work mate about Nevada since i assume Harry Ried would tip the scales in Nevada to a more moderate candidate so we will see. Mayor Pete reminds me of a younger male Hilary Clinton to be honest with you and i think Trump would eat his lunch should he win.

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New Nevada poll shows Bernie at 25, Biden at 18, and Buttigieg at 10. Buttigieg has one of his staffers in charge of voter protection though, so don’t be shocked if Buttigieg has a “miraculous” showing.

This will create a snowball, if that happens and my pick ( Warren ) does not do well i think it would be time for her to toss in the towel.

[zenkai]

Some good points. A Obama reelection official, has stated more than once, that none of the Democrat. candidates can beat Trump. He restated it recently, that the front runners are not electable. Even Sanders. He has very strong support from the young generation, but it is the older generation which generally have the best voter turn out on average and they are not as a whole, going to vote for him.

That is not to say he has a zero chance of beating Trump however. The issue for him, is not the national popular vote, but the electoral votes needed.

Good points, if Democrats would pick someone like Bill Clinton who is more center they would have a much better chance. You need a better message then "I hate Trump"

[NineSpine]

Good points, if Democrats would pick someone like Bill Clinton who is more center they would have a much better chance. You need a better message then "I hate Trump"

Right, if democrats would pick a clinton they could definitely beat Trump... no holes in that argument at all..

[Telogrus]

Right, if democrats would pick a clinton they could definitely beat Trump... no holes in that argument at all..

These centrists are a broken record. They keep on saying that you need a centrist to beat Trump, even though he beat a centrist in 2016

[draynay]

Right, if democrats would pick a clinton they could definitely beat Trump... no holes in that argument at all..

His attempt at a serious take unsurprisingly reminded me of something from The Onion, its the "Guide to the Democratic Candidates: Bernie Sanders"

https://politics.theonion.com/the-on...31219/slides/2

Biggest Weakness: Radical views could make him bigger risk in general election than moderate winners Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, and Al Gore

[Draco-Onis]

These centrists are a broken record. They keep on saying that you need a centrist to beat Trump, even though he beat a centrist in 2016

Zenkai is a Trump supporter so it makes sense he wants someone that Trump can beat easily.

[Rasulis]

Bloomberg reveals to me that polls are bullshit.

I think Bloomberg has been planning for this for a long time.

Bloomberg is now endorsed by more than 100 mayors, including a former Biden supporter.

Why would all these mayors endorse him? Because he has been giving grant money to big and small cities for years. I think they estimated that in California alone his charities have handed out almost 3b in grant money to cities like SF, San Jose, Stockton, Fresno, Oakland, etc.

One thing for sure, if it comes down to Bloomberg and Trump at the end, that 4b estimate for the presidential race is out of the ballpark. Bloomberg spent 1b in advertising in the last quarter of 2019 alone. I think the guy is willing to spend whatever it takes for the executive seat.

[Omega10]

I think Bloomberg has been planning for this for a long time.

Bloomberg is now endorsed by more than 100 mayors, including a former Biden supporter.

Why would all these mayors endorse him? Because he has been giving grant money to big and small cities for years. I think they estimated that in California alone his charities have handed out almost 3b in grant money to cities like SF, San Jose, Stockton, Fresno, Oakland, etc.

One thing for sure, if it comes down to Bloomberg and Trump at the end, that 4b estimate for the presidential race is out of the ballpark. Bloomberg spent 1b in advertising in the last quarter of 2019 alone. I think the guy is willing to spend whatever it takes for the executive seat.

I think that Bloomberg will win the nomination. He has lots of money to spend, and he has been spending it wisely. And I agree that far more than 4 billion will be spent this election cycle.

[Rasulis]

I think that Bloomberg will win the nomination. He has lots of money to spend, and he has been spending it wisely. And I agree that far more than 4 billion will be spent this election cycle.

I am not sure that he can win the nomination. Billionaire is a dirty word to Democrat’s voters. We’ll have a better picture after Super Tuesday.

At least if Bloomberg is nominated, the Democratic party can concentrate on fund raising for the congressional and senatorial races. Like you said, Bloomberg has been running a very professional campaign. Fully self-funded. I don’t think he has bothered doing any fund raising at all. The Republican party on the other hand will need to step up their fund raising big time.

[Edge-]

Billionaire is a dirty word to Democrat’s voters.

As it god-damn should be.

The Republican party on the other hand will need to step up their fund raising big time.

Their fundraising efforts are going just fine, and they have a huge war chest that they've been using to blanket the internet and social media with ads.

[NineSpine]

I am not sure that he can win the nomination. Billionaire is a dirty word to Democrat’s voters. We’ll have a better picture after Super Tuesday.

At least if Bloomberg is nominated, the Democratic party can concentrate on fund raising for the congressional and senatorial races. Like you said, Bloomberg has been running a very professional campaign. Fully self-funded. I don’t think he has bothered doing any fund raising at all. The Republican party on the other hand will need to step up their fund raising big time.

Money doesn't matter in presidential general elections. The amount of free coverage the race gets buries any potential spending you could do.

The reason he can't win isn't that he is a billionaire. The problem is that he is the worst of the left and the right: A relentless nanny-state advocate who also supports institutional racism.

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I think that Bloomberg will win the nomination. He has lots of money to spend, and he has been spending it wisely. And I agree that far more than 4 billion will be spent this election cycle.

A democrat who hates black people can't win the nomination in the 21st century.

[beanman12345]

I am not sure that he can win the nomination. Billionaire is a dirty word to Democrat’s voters. We’ll have a better picture after Super Tuesday.

At least if Bloomberg is nominated, the Democratic party can concentrate on fund raising for the congressional and senatorial races. Like you said, Bloomberg has been running a very professional campaign. Fully self-funded. I don’t think he has bothered doing any fund raising at all. The Republican party on the other hand will need to step up their fund raising big time.

While I agree with it being a dirty word, it's not a disqualifier. Here in Illinois in 2018 we happily voted in a democrat billionaire owner of Hyatt hotel chain, who basically bought his way into Governor seat, to replace a vile pos republican who was ruining our state. So far he's been great for the state. I think people are less concerned that Bloomberg is a billionaire and more concerned with getting Trump out.