[Megathread] Bernie Sanders 2016

[Nadiru]

Suddenly polls don't matter because he is an unusual candidate?

He has managed to piss off huge voting blocs. He barely gets 45-50% Republican support right now.

Polls consistently show that most women and minorities hate him and you can't win an election right now if that is the case. Hillary can be as unpopular as hell but it doesn't mean anything if the candidate on the other side is hated more.

I suppose we'll have to see. Frankly, my opinion is that Trump's going to experience what some would call a "polling miracle" over the next several months and drastically change his polling numbers.

[Fugus]

Suddenly polls don't matter because he is an unusual candidate?

He has managed to piss off huge voting blocs. He barely gets 45-50% Republican support right now.

Polls consistently show that most women and minorities hate him and you can't win an election right now if that is the case. Hillary can be as unpopular as hell but it doesn't mean anything if the candidate on the other side is hated more.

Yes and no.

While he is hated more the thing is is he hated enough for those groups to actually go out in en mass compared to those crazies whom like Trump enough to go vote for him no matter what.

It really depends on voter turnout.

Sanders is the one who energized the democrats and brought more independents into the election on that side. He is probably gone in the general barring a miracle.
Trump is the one who energized the republican base as well and he is still in it for the general.

Even if he is hated, it comes down is he hated enough to force people to actually come out in force and vote for Hillary, many of which hate her as well. That is a gamble as you are actually asking them to participate in a process where they vote to either lose or lose badly and go out of their way to cast that vote. Many will just not waste their time in that one.

[Deletedaccount1]

I suppose we'll have to see. Frankly, my opinion is that Trump's going to experience what some would call a "polling miracle" over the next several months and drastically change his polling numbers.

The only way I can see him getting more popular is if he starts making more sense and acts more presidential. I think the only feasible way for him to actually win the election would be an economic crisis or a major terrorist attack right before the election.

[Deleted]

Suddenly polls don't matter because he is an unusual candidate?

He has managed to piss off huge voting blocs. He barely gets 45-50% Republican support right now.

Polls consistently show that most women and minorities hate him and you can't win an election right now if that is the case. Hillary can be as unpopular as hell but it doesn't mean anything if the candidate on the other side is hated more.

He's appealliing to the party base right now. That base is mostly of fairly unintelligent xenophobes.

He'll shift gears for the presidential election. You can't make many assumptions about that.

[Deletedaccount1]

Even if he is hated, it comes down is he hated enough to force people to actually come out in force and vote for Hillary, many of which hate her as well. That is a gamble as you are actually asking them to participate in a process where they vote to either lose or lose badly and go out of their way to cast that vote. Many will just not waste their time in that one.

If truly 70% of women who plan on voting do not plan on voting for Trump, he has already lost. If the poll numbers are even remotely accurate and reflect only a fraction of most polls, he is still going to lose. He hasn't even won the nomination yet.

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He'll shift gears for the presidential election. You can't make many assumptions about that.

You make the assumption that he will win the nomination meanwhile criticizing me for making assumptions.

[Fugus]

If truly 70% of women who plan on voting do not plan on voting for Trump, he has already lost. If the poll numbers are even remotely accurate and reflect only a fraction of most polls, he is still going to lose. He hasn't even won the nomination yet.

At this point, he pretty well has the nomination in the bag more than Clinton does. Quite literally the only way for him to lose at this point would be for the GOP to screw him out of it which would be suicide for the party for years to come at this point, probably down ballot suicide at that.

And even if 70% of the women refuse to vote for trump, you still have to deal that huge section who refuse to vote for clinton along with the huge numbers that have turned out to vote for trump who typically don't vote.

Trump has a real chance against Hillary.

[Theodarzna]

Whenever you post anything, you rely on nothing but anecdotal evidence, pure speculation, straw men and muddy reasoning.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/190403/se...ion-trump.aspx
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/donald-tr...election-looms

The fact is that Trump polls lower than his opponents with virtually all groups except for white men over 60, in which case he only leads by a small margin.

Sweet Gloriana you've returned.

And yes, for Hillary's sake she hopes that holds true. But disliking Trump does not mean votes for Hillary. People disliked Bush, it did not mean they liked John Kerry.

The other guy being reviled helps, but then its "Will enough people vote for me." FOR EXAMPLE, two big problems can emerge.

1, Voter Apathy A: Everyone believes so assuredly that Clinton will win that many don't vote and the election becomes perilously close thus crippling any mandate she might earn or worse she looses.

2, Voter Apathy B: Its a lesser of two evils election and people stay home.

I predict a mix of both, though probably more the Voter Apathy A situation.

[Nadiru]

You make the assumption that he will win the nomination meanwhile criticizing me for making assumptions.

That's hardly an assumption at this point; mathematically, Trump is the only candidate who even can meet the number of delegates to be nominated. And what's more, Trump doesn't have to win the next 60% of delegates, last I saw he had to win something like 40% of the remaining delegates. This becomes even more in the bag if either Kasich or Cruz drop out because their delegates become unbound, which I'm sure is why neither of them are dropping out, under orders from the GOP elite.

[Theodarzna]

If truly 70% of women who plan on voting do not plan on voting for Trump, he has already lost. If the poll numbers are even remotely accurate and reflect only a fraction of most polls, he is still going to lose. He hasn't even won the nomination yet.

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You make the assumption that he will win the nomination meanwhile criticizing me for making assumptions.

Plan on =/= will. Bernie thought he was going to do well in several areas and polled very well and he also did not win their votes. Even being the clear favorite turnout was a struggle for a guy beloved by his core demographic(s).

People may hate Trump, and believe me we all do as a ritual at this point, but will we vote?

[Deletedaccount1]

That's hardly an assumption at this point; mathematically, Trump is the only candidate who even can meet the number of delegates to be nominated. And what's more, Trump doesn't have to win the next 60% of delegates, last I saw he had to win something like 40% of the remaining delegates. This becomes even more in the bag if either Kasich or Cruz drop out because their delegates become unbound, which I'm sure is why neither of them are dropping out, under orders from the GOP elite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...rimaries,_2016

He needs to win 56% of the remaining delegates. The convention is very likely going to be contested which is not good for Trump's chances of being the nominee.

[Theodarzna]

The only way I can see him getting more popular is if he starts making more sense and acts more presidential. I think the only feasible way for him to actually win the election would be an economic crisis or a major terrorist attack right before the election.

Bush proved you can be a complete idiot and still win.

[Deletedaccount1]

At this point, he pretty well has the nomination in the bag more than Clinton does. Quite literally the only way for him to lose at this point would be for the GOP to screw him out of it which would be suicide for the party for years to come at this point, probably down ballot suicide at that.

And even if 70% of the women refuse to vote for trump, you still have to deal that huge section who refuse to vote for clinton along with the huge numbers that have turned out to vote for trump who typically don't vote.

Trump has a real chance against Hillary.

Not really. Cruz would favor better against Clinton and I think the party is more willing to lose the election than give him the nomination.

It is suicide either way by your own definition.

If you ignore polling and rely on increasingly small group of people to show up to vote then sure he has a chance. But that is just speculation at this point.

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Bush proved you can be a complete idiot and still win.

He was a nice person who didn't flame the majority of the population.

[Theodarzna]

That's hardly an assumption at this point; mathematically, Trump is the only candidate who even can meet the number of delegates to be nominated. And what's more, Trump doesn't have to win the next 60% of delegates, last I saw he had to win something like 40% of the remaining delegates. This becomes even more in the bag if either Kasich or Cruz drop out because their delegates become unbound, which I'm sure is why neither of them are dropping out, under orders from the GOP elite.

That action by the GOP to go against that many voters would be political suicide generally. Even if they could do it, they won't. They are more confident in the fact that their ideal demographics will punish them.

[Deleted]

You make the assumption that he will win the nomination meanwhile criticizing me for making assumptions.

I don't make that assumption. No one knows what will happen. You can't project his primary campaign onto the presidential campaign.

He could carry on with the dumb racist misogynistic shit in which case he'll lose. He could adjust his appeal to be more centrist. All we know so far is that he's very good at appealing to one section of the electorate.

[Fugus]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republ...rimaries,_2016

He needs to win 56% of the remaining delegates. The convention is very likely going to be contested which is not good for Trump's chances of being the nominee.

If they try to go contested to strip Trump of the win he legitimately earned, it will be suicide for the party for years to come. They would be stupid to go that route if they wish to retain any legitimacy.

Quite literally all they can hope for is Clinton to win as economically she is pretty well on their side and overall seems like she won't be trying to do much.

[Theodarzna]

Not really. Cruz would favor better against Clinton and I think the party is more willing to lose the election than give him the nomination.

It is suicide either way by your own definition.

If you ignore polling and rely on increasingly small group of people to show up to vote then sure he has a chance. But that is just speculation at this point.

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He was a nice person who didn't flame the majority of the population.

He was the sort of guy the average joe could have a beer with, and had the charisma with the blue collar crowd and those who SEE THEMSELVES as blue collar. Even if we don't like it we have to acknowledge Trump is resonating with those people once more.

They will vote, but will enough people care to vote against them?

[Deletedaccount1]

Sweet Gloriana you've returned.

And yes, for Hillary's sake she hopes that holds true. But disliking Trump does not mean votes for Hillary. People disliked Bush, it did not mean they liked John Kerry.

The other guy being reviled helps, but then its "Will enough people vote for me." FOR EXAMPLE, two big problems can emerge.

1, Voter Apathy A: Everyone believes so assuredly that Clinton will win that many don't vote and the election becomes perilously close thus crippling any mandate she might earn or worse she looses.

2, Voter Apathy B: Its a lesser of two evils election and people stay home.

I predict a mix of both, though probably more the Voter Apathy A situation.

Do you have anything to back up what you are saying? No political commentator that I listen to thinks Trump has a good chance against Clinton.

The only group that doesn't like Hillary is young, college age liberals and of course conservatives. Hillary polls well with women, old people and minorities and gets enough of votes from other groups to make her the clear favorite to win.

Voter apathy is nothing but speculation which will require a reputable source to make it worth discussing.

[Theodarzna]

I don't make that assumption. No one knows what will happen. You can't project his primary campaign onto the presidential campaign.

He could carry on with the dumb racist misogynistic shit in which case he'll lose. He could adjust his appeal to be more centrist. All we know so far is that he's very good at appealing to one section of the electorate.

That section has also carried him much farther than Bernies insurgency did.

[Deletedaccount1]

If they try to go contested to strip Trump of the win he legitimately earned, it will be suicide for the party for years to come. They would be stupid to go that route if they wish to retain any legitimacy.

Quite literally all they can hope for is Clinton to win as economically she is pretty well on their side and overall seems like she won't be trying to do much.

Why do you assume this exactly?

If he is the candidate and loses horribly that will be a "suicide". If he is somehow elected and becomes an awful president that will also be "suicide" for the party.

[Fugus]

Not really. Cruz would favor better against Clinton and I think the party is more willing to lose the election than give him the nomination.

It is suicide either way by your own definition.

If you ignore polling and rely on increasingly small group of people to show up to vote then sure he has a chance. But that is just speculation at this point..

Yes Cruz would fair better against Clinton the same way Sanders fairs better against them all but the fact of the matter is, he can't legitimately get the nomination at this point.

And a huge difference between them losing the election to Hillary with them eating crow with Trump versus them screwing Trump out of the nomination this election. While both of them leave the GOP screwed. Them losing to Hillary would leave them screwed for an election and give them a few years to clean their house and hopefully fix the issues that allowed Trump that much control to begin with and try again next time. If they try to strip him of the nomination he legitimately earned and go that route, they will lose the election due to many voters pissed at them and kill the party for YEARS to come for going against the collective will of their voters in such an obvious way.