Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
Trump hasn't had a very good week and it's starting to show up in the polling.
First there was the debate. Then there were the revelations about the Trump Foundation never filling out the paperwork to make it legal for them to solicit money. Another slew of Republican newspapers endorsing Clinton. A midnight twitter rampage about the whole Machado thing that is just proving Clinton's point. Trump doubling down with religious conservatives as the expense of the LGBTQ community -- that he spent months courting. Way to throw all that effort away in one disastrous decision.
Trump's losing control of the narrative and is trying to get it back by attacking Bill's infidelity -- which as I pointed out to Ransath is just likely to backfire.
Of course there are a bunch of Trump supporters...like Ransath...that either don't care about any of the problems Trump is having, or they twist it around to be a good thing. But elections aren't won with your base. You have to capture moderates, independents and the like, and the more Trump alienates gays, latinos, women, and blacks, the further and further the white house is from his grasp.
And a poll number (when its near the election, 2 weeks or less) is a good predictor of how the election will develop. As we get close to that day, polls have more predictive power than before. So, to say, this last batch of information is much more close to what will happen in nov 8 than the ones that were done in august. Its basic statistics. Really, learn to stat
Last edited by Thepersona; 2016-09-30 at 03:06 PM.
Forgive my english, as i'm not a native speaker
What, you think that Clinton fans will blame Russian hacks in case Clinton loses rather then fraud? Not "dumb rednecks"? Not "minorities not understanding what is good for them"?
Well, i guess that is one of possibilities... how easy is it to influence US electoral process with a few choice hacks then...
Yep, if he loses, Trump supporters will either claim they were trolling or disappear. That will be the same as Romney... I really doubt Trump supporters will be defending him over anything, but they will hear results of his current litigation and laugh at him, as they did before last year.
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
I know you aren't talking to me -- but if Trump wins it's quite likely the left will grudgingly accept that result while wonder how on earth there are so many people who want Trump in office.
But Trump has already started poisoning the well if he loses -- the right is the one setting the stage to cry about rigged elections, not the left.
Self-ownage? I don't understand. I'm not claiming Trump is definitely going to lose. I'm the type of person who always leaves room for doubt. What I am saying is I want to see the reactions of those rather confident Trump supporters IF he loses. I want to see what they have to say after all their grand proclamations of "landslides" and what not. The operative words from my previous post was "if he loses". I did not say "when he loses" because that would make me no different than the self-assured Trump supporters who seem to have left no room for the possibility of him losing.
No, I really doubt Clinton support will blame anyone for losing, other than morons. Remember, Trump is telling you that the system is out to get him, while Clinton claim his support depends on half deplorables. Claiming Hillary support will blame fraud or Russia, because Trump is already blaming fraud, is tone deaf...
Folly and fakery have always been with us... but it has never before been as dangerous as it is now, never in history have we been able to afford it less. - Isaac Asimov
Every damn thing you do in this life, you pay for. - Edith Piaf
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. - Orwell
No amount of belief makes something a fact. - James Randi
BTW - serious question for all of you...
Have ANY of you been polled? I have both a land line and a cell phone and I have not. I am a registered Democrat and live in Tennessee, just curious if any of you have been polled.
(I mean for either the primaries or the Presidential election)
Try again without cherry picking:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html
You know throughout my history of paying attention to politics I had no problem calling out failures when they happened, Kerry was prone to talking over people like he was a hyper intellectual and everyone else was a moron, Gore tried some awkward posturing against a guy people wanted to have a beer with, McCain tried to shoe horn Kerry into his VP spot and was forced at the last minute to make a gut decision to go with Palin who sunk him, Romney was out of touch with average americans and the GOP wasn't paying attention to the power of latin voters. I've already called out Trump but I have also said how Hillary could lose it and how Bernie would be inadvertantly to blame for it.
I'm not delusional enough to cover my ears and go, "LALALALALALAAL everything is fine! Can't hear reality!"
I am one of those that you are speaking about. If Trump losses, whatever. I firmly believe that Hillary will fuck this country up but if she wins I am not going to leave the country. I will go on living my life as normal.
- - - Updated - - -
LOL - thanks! I posted that knowing full well that you would come back with the reply you did. LOL, awesome!
I disagree, if Hillary loses it will because Millenials never got back on board with her after Bernie. Typically Millenials identify as democrats, it is a demographic Republicans have long wanted but they tend to be pro-gay marraige and pro-weed. Even Rush said Republicans should do everything they can to get them in the R Party. But if they don't vote for the Democratic nominee then that would of directly lead to Hillary's defeat, even my conservative co-worker was shocked to hear the Independant candidate had 6% of the vote atm.
It also explains why CNN is currently running 2 stories about how Gary Johnson should drop out, because they want those 'protest votes' to go away.
Last edited by DeadmanWalking; 2016-09-30 at 03:22 PM.
Well that's not quite what I was going for. Trump is eligible for tax loopholes that most people can't be, because they can't buy a golf course or live in their own rental house. But I ran out of time before I finished.
Trump could, legally, have a tax rate of zero. But it would require a mix of the options listed above -- most likely, as Fortune stated, a massive amount of debt (which Trump has declared bankrupt on multiple times) and depreciation (Trump has walked away from multiple failing businesses just to start a new one). But, despite that his own income tax plan
https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/trump-tax-reform.pdf
cites, as a reason it is self-funding, "Reducing or eliminating most deductions and loopholes available to the very rich" -- it does not actually cite any of the above reasons. Other than the line "We will also phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses" which, again, I can't fathom how that'd be all that much anyhow (I admit it could be, but I don't see how), there is either no mention of, or specific mention of no change to,
a) deductions for loans/mortgages
b) depreciation
c) capital gains -- sort of. Trump appears to be holding the current 20% cap (some sources suggest higher but I could not verify), but makes no mention of depreciation recapture, a special form of capital gains (or close to it, at least) for selling a property for which you've claimed depreciation. Which Trump almost certainly does. The current maximum rate is 25%. As Trump is making a huge deal about simplifying forms, he could be planning to throw depreciation recapture in with other capital gains, lowering the effective rate for him. It should be noted Trump has defended his tax plan as stimulating long-term growth, so this potential cut at the top end, for real estate owners, seems likely.
Perhaps there are more details of the tax plan than are available than what's on his own site. But basically, it appears he's only pledging to cut loopholes that he's not using.
I am not the only one wondering about such things. Even Forbes, kind of a leading source on the subject matter, calls Trump's capital gains tax plan a "mystery" since it actually hurts some start-up businesses, and the Washington Post laid out in detail how Trump's plans would directly benefit him. That's all in addition to the criticism it's collected from basically every examination of its supposed self-funding, especially this newer version.
I would like to close this with another line from Trump's tax plan, about the removal of the estate tax:
"No family will have to pay the death tax. You earned and saved that money for your family, not the government. You paid taxes on it when you earned it. "
Trump has not paid taxes on it. This line is pure hypocrisy.