Republican Election 2016 - Donald Trump Megathread [OFFICIAL]

[Thepersona]

Poll numbers mean nothing AT ALL.

Well, in the end they mean that a candidate wins or losses. Or what, if the donald losses (and its the most possible scenario) you people would try to topple the winning candidate, jeopardizing democracy?

[Moralgy]

Trump is a reality TV star. He has been a running joke for 30 years. Thinking Trump will disappear like Romney, implies you've been sober for 10 months at most. Which also explains supporting Trump. Because the idea of Trump being just like any other candidate, is the most tone deaf thing I have heard in a while... if I wasn't corresponding with Trump supporters on a regular basis...

Trump won't vanish, but his huge support will. He will forever keep the birther crowd, but the sane republicans that are voting the party line will come to terms with his loss and move on.

[Deleted]

Well, in the end they mean that a candidate wins or losses.

What? Pretty sure that only an actual election determines whether a candidate wins or losses.

[LaserSharkDFB]

Well, in the end they mean that a candidate wins or losses. Or what, if the donald losses (and its the most possible scenario) you people would try to topple the winning candidate, jeopardizing democracy?

Maybe the Second Amendment people could do something, I don't know. Completely unrelated, Hillary's bodyguards should disarm themselves; let's see what happens to her.

[Felya]

Nothing - I repeat, NOTHING - has "backfired" on him yet. Not a single fucking thing. The media has tried everything they can to tear him down since day one and NOTHING has worked. If is fucking hilarious to watch liberals heads explode on a daily basis as they try and try again and Trump just looks at them and says "ya, whatever". He is going to make such a great President

Actually, quite a lot has backfired on Trump. Everything from his wall proposal to the debate it self. You are just ignoring everything about him, because you want to be him. The fact that you think Trump will be like Romney if he loses, highlights that fact.

[Lenonis]

Trump hasn't had a very good week and it's starting to show up in the polling.

First there was the debate. Then there were the revelations about the Trump Foundation never filling out the paperwork to make it legal for them to solicit money. Another slew of Republican newspapers endorsing Clinton. A midnight twitter rampage about the whole Machado thing that is just proving Clinton's point. Trump doubling down with religious conservatives as the expense of the LGBTQ community -- that he spent months courting. Way to throw all that effort away in one disastrous decision.

Trump's losing control of the narrative and is trying to get it back by attacking Bill's infidelity -- which as I pointed out to Ransath is just likely to backfire.

Of course there are a bunch of Trump supporters...like Ransath...that either don't care about any of the problems Trump is having, or they twist it around to be a good thing. But elections aren't won with your base. You have to capture moderates, independents and the like, and the more Trump alienates gays, latinos, women, and blacks, the further and further the white house is from his grasp.

[Thepersona]

What? Pretty sure that only an actual election determines whether a candidate wins or losses.

And a poll number (when its near the election, 2 weeks or less) is a good predictor of how the election will develop. As we get close to that day, polls have more predictive power than before. So, to say, this last batch of information is much more close to what will happen in nov 8 than the ones that were done in august. Its basic statistics. Really, learn to stat

[Shalcker]

That's funny coming from you, given that Russian hacking is likely to have a far greater influence on this election than one guy slipping through the cracks.

What, you think that Clinton fans will blame Russian hacks in case Clinton loses rather then fraud? Not "dumb rednecks"? Not "minorities not understanding what is good for them"?

Well, i guess that is one of possibilities... how easy is it to influence US electoral process with a few choice hacks then...

[Felya]

Trump won't vanish, but his huge support will. He will forever keep the birther crowd, but the sane republicans that are voting the party line will come to terms with his loss and move on.

Yep, if he loses, Trump supporters will either claim they were trolling or disappear. That will be the same as Romney... I really doubt Trump supporters will be defending him over anything, but they will hear results of his current litigation and laugh at him, as they did before last year.

[Lenonis]

What, you think that Clinton fans will blame Russian hacks in case Clinton loses rather then fraud?

I know you aren't talking to me -- but if Trump wins it's quite likely the left will grudgingly accept that result while wonder how on earth there are so many people who want Trump in office.

But Trump has already started poisoning the well if he loses -- the right is the one setting the stage to cry about rigged elections, not the left.

[Deleted]

Trump hasn't had a very good week and it's starting to show up in the polling.

Yep.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-pres...oll-dashboard/

[Kyriani]

This post reeks of self-ownage. Too funny!

Self-ownage? I don't understand. I'm not claiming Trump is definitely going to lose. I'm the type of person who always leaves room for doubt. What I am saying is I want to see the reactions of those rather confident Trump supporters IF he loses. I want to see what they have to say after all their grand proclamations of "landslides" and what not. The operative words from my previous post was "if he loses". I did not say "when he loses" because that would make me no different than the self-assured Trump supporters who seem to have left no room for the possibility of him losing.

[Felya]

What, you think that Clinton fans will blame Russian hacks in case Clinton loses rather then fraud? Not "dumb rednecks"? Not "minorities not understanding what is good for them"?

Well, i guess that is one of possibilities... how easy is it to influence US electoral process with a few choice hacks then...

No, I really doubt Clinton support will blame anyone for losing, other than morons. Remember, Trump is telling you that the system is out to get him, while Clinton claim his support depends on half deplorables. Claiming Hillary support will blame fraud or Russia, because Trump is already blaming fraud, is tone deaf...

[Deleted]

BTW - serious question for all of you...

Have ANY of you been polled? I have both a land line and a cell phone and I have not. I am a registered Democrat and live in Tennessee, just curious if any of you have been polled.

(I mean for either the primaries or the Presidential election)

[Lenonis]

Yep.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-pres...oll-dashboard/

Try again without cherry picking:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

[DeadmanWalking]

Their heads won't explode, they will just forget about Trump and move on with their lives. It happened with Romney and it will happen with Trump, and it will happen with Hillary as well with her supporters. A few days of "the country is doomed" and then a "he/she was just a flawed candidate" type sentiment will appear.

You know throughout my history of paying attention to politics I had no problem calling out failures when they happened, Kerry was prone to talking over people like he was a hyper intellectual and everyone else was a moron, Gore tried some awkward posturing against a guy people wanted to have a beer with, McCain tried to shoe horn Kerry into his VP spot and was forced at the last minute to make a gut decision to go with Palin who sunk him, Romney was out of touch with average americans and the GOP wasn't paying attention to the power of latin voters. I've already called out Trump but I have also said how Hillary could lose it and how Bernie would be inadvertantly to blame for it.

I'm not delusional enough to cover my ears and go, "LALALALALALAAL everything is fine! Can't hear reality!"

[Deleted]

Self-ownage? I don't understand. I'm not claiming Trump is definitely going to lose. I'm the type of person who always leaves room for doubt. What I am saying is I want to see the reactions of those rather confident Trump supporters IF he loses. I want to see what they have to say after all their grand proclamations of "landslides" and what not. The operative words from my previous post was "if he loses". I did not say "when he loses" because that would make me no different than the self-assured Trump supporters who seem to have left no room for the possibility of him losing.

I am one of those that you are speaking about. If Trump losses, whatever. I firmly believe that Hillary will fuck this country up but if she wins I am not going to leave the country. I will go on living my life as normal.

- - - Updated - - -

Try again without cherry picking:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...nton-5491.html

LOL - thanks! I posted that knowing full well that you would come back with the reply you did. LOL, awesome!

[Lenonis]

LOL - thanks! I posted that knowing full well that you would come back with the reply you did. LOL, awesome!

Grats for predicting the obvious? Do you have a point you want to make or did you just make yourself look silly just for kicks?

[DeadmanWalking]

No, I really doubt Clinton support will blame anyone for losing, other than morons. Remember, Trump is telling you that the system is out to get him, while Clinton claim his support depends on half deplorables. Claiming Hillary support will blame fraud or Russia, because Trump is already blaming fraud, is tone deaf...

I disagree, if Hillary loses it will because Millenials never got back on board with her after Bernie. Typically Millenials identify as democrats, it is a demographic Republicans have long wanted but they tend to be pro-gay marraige and pro-weed. Even Rush said Republicans should do everything they can to get them in the R Party. But if they don't vote for the Democratic nominee then that would of directly lead to Hillary's defeat, even my conservative co-worker was shocked to hear the Independant candidate had 6% of the vote atm.

It also explains why CNN is currently running 2 stories about how Gary Johnson should drop out, because they want those 'protest votes' to go away.

[Breccia]

Don't forget, that if Trump payed 0 in taxes, then his argument that "taxes are too high" goes right out the window.
If someone like him isn't paying taxes, then there's a tax problem in the US, but it's not that they're too high.

Well that's not quite what I was going for. Trump is eligible for tax loopholes that most people can't be, because they can't buy a golf course or live in their own rental house. But I ran out of time before I finished.

Trump could, legally, have a tax rate of zero. But it would require a mix of the options listed above -- most likely, as Fortune stated, a massive amount of debt (which Trump has declared bankrupt on multiple times) and depreciation (Trump has walked away from multiple failing businesses just to start a new one). But, despite that his own income tax plan

https://assets.donaldjtrump.com/trump-tax-reform.pdf

cites, as a reason it is self-funding, "Reducing or eliminating most deductions and loopholes available to the very rich" -- it does not actually cite any of the above reasons. Other than the line "We will also phase in a reasonable cap on the deductibility of business interest expenses" which, again, I can't fathom how that'd be all that much anyhow (I admit it could be, but I don't see how), there is either no mention of, or specific mention of no change to,
a) deductions for loans/mortgages
b) depreciation
c) capital gains -- sort of. Trump appears to be holding the current 20% cap (some sources suggest higher but I could not verify), but makes no mention of depreciation recapture, a special form of capital gains (or close to it, at least) for selling a property for which you've claimed depreciation. Which Trump almost certainly does. The current maximum rate is 25%. As Trump is making a huge deal about simplifying forms, he could be planning to throw depreciation recapture in with other capital gains, lowering the effective rate for him. It should be noted Trump has defended his tax plan as stimulating long-term growth, so this potential cut at the top end, for real estate owners, seems likely.

Perhaps there are more details of the tax plan than are available than what's on his own site. But basically, it appears he's only pledging to cut loopholes that he's not using.

I am not the only one wondering about such things. Even Forbes, kind of a leading source on the subject matter, calls Trump's capital gains tax plan a "mystery" since it actually hurts some start-up businesses, and the Washington Post laid out in detail how Trump's plans would directly benefit him. That's all in addition to the criticism it's collected from basically every examination of its supposed self-funding, especially this newer version.

I would like to close this with another line from Trump's tax plan, about the removal of the estate tax:

"No family will have to pay the death tax. You earned and saved that money for your family, not the government. You paid taxes on it when you earned it. "

Trump has not paid taxes on it. This line is pure hypocrisy.