[Speculation] There Won't Be 9.3 Patch

[Dracullus]

I will say though that the wait in 8.1 before BoD (6 weeks) was really pointless. And we likely would have been better off with the “by September 2018” launch date they started with for bfa, before pushing it up to August 13/14, 2018.

It was not "by September 2018", it was "by 21st September" which means Summer 2018. You have no evidence someone pushed BfA to August 13/14, imo more likely it was planned, but later Blizz refused to delay it (member that BfA exact date was announced reeealy early, something like 4 months before launch?). SL showed us that even month delay can fix ton of bugs.

Also I disagree that "wait" in 8.1 was problem. First: what wait (for raid)? Uldir had just 3 months, extremely short for full raid. Second: I love weekly questlines leading into raid, slowly rising hype.

Sadly just Nighthold, Argus and BoD had that - and only Nighthold was almost flawless (first big zone, then 9 chapters of weekly story questlines, only problem was lack of Gul'dan).

[Soon-TM]

There will obviously be a 9.3, like there was a 8.3 and a 7.3.

Did 7.0 or 8.0 last more than half a year? Yeah, I didn't think so.

[Mojo03]

7.3 to 8.0
6.2 to 7.0
5.4 to 6.0

Not including the BfA gap because Covid delays

You forgot 3.3 to 4.0

[Revamp Man]

Did 7.0 or 8.0 last more than half a year? Yeah, I didn't think so.

That’s because of the delays caused by
Fires
Covid

Did people manage to block out the part of 2020 where everything from tv to video games suffered multiple delays or are we living in a world where blizzard is suddenly so Uber quick in development that they can pump out a patch from 0% to launch over the course of ptr cycles

[Couchpotato2013]

It was not "by September 2018", it was "by 21st September" which means Summer 2018. You have no evidence someone pushed BfA to August 13/14, imo more likely it was planned, but later Blizz refused to delay it (member that BfA exact date was announced reeealy early, something like 4 months before launch?). SL showed us that even month delay can fix ton of bugs.

Also I disagree that "wait" in 8.1 was problem. First: what wait (for raid)? Uldir had just 3 months, extremely short for full raid. Second: I love weekly questlines leading into raid, slowly rising hype.

Sadly just Nighthold, Argus and BoD had that - and only Nighthold was almost flawless (first big zone, then 9 chapters of weekly story questlines, only problem was lack of Gul'dan).

Uldir lasted for 20 weeks (5 months). And people’s feel for it really hinged on the dissatisfaction with the vehicles they used to engage in that content. One class ring for azerite and that was it.

[ashblond]

Wow. Great defense of your claim. I'm surprised you didn't state you were a share holder again to give your words a perception of greater weight.

[Revamp Man]

You forgot 3.3 to 4.0

I figured I would let them forget that along with the dragon soul gap

[Soon-TM]

That’s because of the delays caused by
Fires
Covid

Did people manage to block out the part of 2020 where everything from tv to video games suffered multiple delays or are we living in a world where blizzard is suddenly so Uber quick in development that they can pump out a patch from 0% to launch over the course of ptr cycles

Whatever you want, my dude, but the delay is here, and isn't going to magically go away just because the pandemic might recede during the second half of 2021.

[rhorle]

7.3 to 8.0
6.2 to 7.0
5.4 to 6.0

7.3 to BfA launch was 11 months. 6.2 to Legion launch was 14 months. 5.4 to WoD launch was 14 months. 3 of the 8 expansions have had a 12 month or greater content gap between last patch and launch. 7 of 8 expansions have been announced a year or great from release with 3 being 15 to 16 months in advance.

The only reliable predictor for expansions is the fall window. As all but two have released between September and December. Expansions have lasted 21 to 27 months long. BfA was 27, TBC 26, with WotLK and Mists at 25. WoD was the shortest at 21 months.

[dcc626]

To be clear, this is just personal speculation.

1. In terms of lore and content

Sylvanas is the final boss of 9.1 raid. And there is no other known major villain that is worth another patch so far. It is logical to think 9.2 will possibly be SL last major patch with Jailer as final boss.

Unless Blizzard pulls some big lore twists:
- A reused Arthas/Uther/Garrosh or whatever for a content patch raid
- It turns out Jailer is good and eternal ones are bad. And Arbiter will be 9.3 boss after Jailer in 9.2
- With jailer defeated in 9.2, there will be a transition from shadowlands to azeroth or voidlords 9.3 contents patch, with non-SL raid.
But those possibilities are extremely low.

2. In terms of time

No matter when 9.1 will be released (from June to Augest), it will last probably to January 2022. From previous experience with Legion and BFA, both 7.3 and 8.3 patch lasted nearly a year.

If 9.2 is released in January 2022, and Blizzard still wants to keep 1 expansion every 2 years, which means 10.0 in late 2022, it is very unlikely that there will be a 9.3 patch.

Pure speculation

PS: “no 9.3” can be Blizzard’s best decision for SL, under the game’s current situation.

Do you think there will be 9.3 patch?

this is all assuming we get a new xpac next year. considering the fact that we arent having a blizzcon in november, i wouldnt be surprised if the next xpac wasnt until early 2023.

also "the best decision for SL" assumes that next xpac will be noticibly different. we will still get an xpac full of borrowed power, raids, dungeons and side content. i wouldnt be surprised if we didnt get a new class again.

people need to stop assuming that because things happened a certain way before, that they will always happen that way.

[Relapses]

people need to stop assuming that because things happened a certain way before, that they will always happen that way.

Yeah right. Pretty soon you'll be suggesting that something like a massive worldwide pandemic unlike anything our modern society has ever seen before is somehow impacting productivity goals for a company that up until this point was not accustomed to working entirely from home. Sorry dude, Blizzard is a multi dollar company. I just don't buy it.

[ashblond]

this is all assuming we get a new xpac next year. considering the fact that we arent having a blizzcon in november, i wouldnt be surprised if the next xpac wasnt until early 2023.

also "the best decision for SL" assumes that next xpac will be noticibly different. we will still get an xpac full of borrowed power, raids, dungeons and side content. i wouldnt be surprised if we didnt get a new class again.

people need to stop assuming that because things happened a certain way before, that they will always happen that way.

You are right. Nothing is sure atm. That's why it is a speculation.

[Revamp Man]

7.3 to BfA launch was 11 months. 6.2 to Legion launch was 14 months. 5.4 to WoD launch was 14 months. 3 of the 8 expansions have had a 12 month or greater content gap between last patch and launch. 7 of 8 expansions have been announced a year or great from release with 3 being 15 to 16 months in advance.

The only reliable predictor for expansions is the fall window. As all but two have released between September and December. Expansions have lasted 21 to 27 months long. BfA was 27, TBC 26, with WotLK and Mists at 25. WoD was the shortest at 21 months.

As I said
The 9.3 to 10.0 gap could be 10-12/13 months
You said no because that’s too big of a gap
I showed examples of similar gaps

You change to expansion announcements and expansion length which have nothing to do with the gap because
1. 10.0 hasn’t been announced
2. The length of this expansion hasn’t been determined
Both 1&2 are also effected by the delays caused by the pandemic and fires

So are you going to throw in more baseless speculation and present it as fact while ignoring the actual facts or can we agree that 9.3 can easily happen and 10.0 can have a year long gap if needed

[rhorle]

As I said The 9.3 to 10.0 gap could be 10-12/13 months You said no because that’s too big of a gap I showed examples of similar gaps

You didn't say 10-12/13 months. You said 10.0 in August of 2023. If it was only going to be 10 months then that means 9.3 would launch in October. That would mean 9.2 in January would be 9 months long. Which is why I said your math was off. Yes I was wrong about a last content patch being an entire year. It likely would be longer looking at the actual numbers so a 10.0 would be later then August. So either way your math was off.

I didn't change to expansion announcements but included them simply factor into any patch dates. Because it is likely that Blizzconline would have the next expansion reveal. Or an in-person 2022 blizzcon in the fall would have it. You are throwing just as much baseless speculation into it and I haven't presented any speculation as fact. Lol. I never said that 9.3 can't happen. For a person that wants to go on facts over speculation you don't seem to care about facts yourself.

All I said was your math was off. And yes I do think that if 9.3 happens we won't see a normal fall expansion release. But that they would shorten the remaining patches and have a late winter or early spring 2023 launch. Then the 11th expansion would go back to normal times. The fires have little to do with it since the expansion was already delayed prior to the fire and it didn't impact the new launch date.

[Swnem]

Why is this reminding me of “no 8.3”

Oh right

Same circular arguments
Same doomsaying
Same “evidence”
Same ignoring everything that goes against the points

Honestly all we are missing is the goalposts getting shifted after the 9.2 announcement at blizzconline

I guess we will know when they reveal it.

But saying everything is the "same" is disingenuous. Covid changed everything. You cannot pretend it didn't happen or that we aren't seeing it's effects atm on the content release schedule. Surely you can see that.

[Couchpotato2013]

https://www.pcgamer.com/final-fantas...ew-jobs-story/

November 23, 2021.

Old news but we can all sort of guess how blizz reacts to direct competition.

[Revamp Man]

You didn't say 10-12/13 months. You said 10.0 in August of 2023. If it was only going to be 10 months then that means 9.3 would launch in October. That would mean 9.2 in January would be 9 months long. Which is why I said your math was off. Yes I was wrong about a last content patch being an entire year. It likely would be longer looking at the actual numbers so a 10.0 would be later then August. So either way your math was off.

I didn't change to expansion announcements but included them simply factor into any patch dates. Because it is likely that Blizzconline would have the next expansion reveal. Or an in-person 2022 blizzcon in the fall would have it. You are throwing just as much baseless speculation into it and I haven't presented any speculation as fact. Lol. I never said that 9.3 can't happen. For a person that wants to go on facts over speculation you don't seem to care about facts yourself.

All I said was your math was off. And yes I do think that if 9.3 happens we won't see a normal fall expansion release. But that they would shorten the remaining patches and have a late winter or early spring 2023 launch. Then the 11th expansion would go back to normal times. The fires have little to do with it since the expansion was already delayed prior to the fire and it didn't impact the new launch date.

If you go back to my post all I say about 9.3 is it’s in 2022 and 10.0 in late 2023 AROUND August which still fits all past releases

Let’s say 9.3 in September for the fact that I didn’t state an actual date for it and simply said it would launch in 2022 and we can say it will fit the 6-7 months going for the 7 because the delays
10.0 in August
11 months

How does that not fit with past expansion launches especially if you take into account the delays
I think even tbc had a huge gap
I believe my original estimate said “let’s just say 4 months total of delay”
Speculation because I didn’t say “this totally happened”

So in your eyes my guess which was AROUND August is based on bad math

You also added previous expansion lengths to factor in patch length which would absolutely be fine if it wasn’t for the fact 9.0 and 10.0 and all content in development Currently has suffered a form of delay from the months of reworking the way the development is happening because of the PANDEMIC and thus we can’t assume that the length of the past can be used for the current one

If you have a horse that runs at 35-40mph for 10 races but then sprained his knee you wouldn’t expect him to meet his previous speed

Now how was my math off

Unless you are talking about the first scenario with no 9.3 which would still have 10.0 in the holiday season at 10 months

- - - Updated - - -

Heck push 9.3 back to August because late January early August is possible just like late August/early September

12 months

Not outside the norm

[rhorle]

If you go back to my post all I say about 9.3 is it’s in 2022 and 10.0 in late 2023 AROUND August which still fits all past releases

Right. Which is why I said your math is off and questioned your dates. If there is no 9.3 then the expansion does not have to be pushed to 2023 as you stated. There is one instance of your math being off. You didn't have to give a date for 9.3 since you did for 9.2. January. So going by typical patch lengths of 6 to 7 months which you keep using yourself that brings us to July to August for 6 to 7. Or September as a maximum for 8 months. It still puts your math off for 10.0 in August because looking at the past delays it is usually longer then a year.

TBC didn't have a huge gap. Patch 2.4 to WotLK launch was only 7.4 months. You are the one using past expansion time frames to try and make your guess seem legitimate. It is stupid to attack me for doing the same. Why is it that you can use facts to make a guess but you say I can't? Weird right? If we can't judge the length of Shadowlands and Expansion 9 (10.0) on past time frames then your math is even more suspect. Right? Or is it that you only apply rules to others?

So either 10.0 launches in 2022 in the holiday season which would definitely not happen just from a practical standpoint or 9.3 launches in 2022 and 10.0 in 2023 around maybe August which imo is what will happen

Also you specifically stated 10.0 in the holiday season would be unlikely so it would get pushed to 2023. Now you are saying it would be in the holiday season and that is what you originally said? Save the lies for the mirror. Your math was off. The next expansion possibly being prior to 2023 was one of the reason I called your math off. You are now agreeing with that assessment. So your math was off.

[Revamp Man]

I guess we will know when they reveal it.

But saying everything is the "same" is disingenuous. Covid changed everything. You cannot pretend it didn't happen or that we aren't seeing it's effects atm on the content release schedule. Surely you can see that.

That’s been my point this entire time

The problem is the reason why people think there’s no 9.3 is because they are holding the game to pre-covid timelines

So either you accept that it’s slowed down everything including patches and 10.0 or you try to say it had no effect on the 10.0 release which based on the past of them admitting they work on expansions side by side would be weird

- - - Updated - - -

Right. Which is why I said your math is off and questioned your dates. If there is no 9.3 then the expansion does not have to be pushed to 2023 as you stated. There is one instance of your math being off. You didn't have to give a date for 9.3 since you did for 9.2. January. So going by typical patch lengths of 6 to 7 months which you keep using yourself that brings us to July to August for 6 to 7. Or September as a maximum for 8 months. It still puts your math off for 10.0 in August because looking at the past delays it is usually longer then a year.

TBC didn't have a huge gap. Patch 2.4 to WotLK launch was only 7.4 months. You are the one using past expansion time frames to try and make your guess seem legitimate. It is stupid to attack me for doing the same. Why is it that you can use facts to make a guess but you say I can't? Weird right? If we can't judge the length of Shadowlands and Expansion 9 (10.0) on past time frames then your math is even more suspect. Right? Or is it that you only apply rules to others?



Also you specifically stated 10.0 in the holiday season would be unlikely so it would get pushed to 2023. Now you are saying it would be in the holiday season and that is what you originally said? Save the lies for the mirror. Your math was off. The next expansion possibly being prior to 2023 was one of the reason I called your math off. You are now agreeing with that assessment. So your math was off.

Are you focusing on the one with 9.3 which had no exact math for the release of 9.3??? The one where even if you do the 7 month math still pushes 10.0 release in the speculated window???

Or are you talking about the one without 9.3 so we get a holiday release??? Unless they were to delay it to Early 2023 Where it would be in the same window as past expansions but would lose holiday sales...from the same company that fired 300 CS workers and 6 months later reposted the jobs...who had record profits and closed branches

Also you seem to be a tad bit confused about the difference between the overall length of the expansion and the length of the end of the expansion. You use the past length of expansions which is pointless so let’s just ignore it like a red headed step child since the pandemic has destroyed the length of the expansion measurement.

Now the reason we use the length of 6-7 months is because that’s what they aim for and it is the only thing we can use because it came from them. The end of expansion measurement is also ok due to the fact both expansions are effected by the delays.

You remember the horse?? You have a second horse with the same speed and it also gets injured...now you can figure how fast it will go after.

So again

How me math wrong?

[Swnem]

That’s been my point this entire time

The problem is the reason why people think there’s no 9.3 is because they are holding the game to pre-covid timelines

So either you accept that it’s slowed down everything including patches and 10.0 or you try to say it had no effect on the 10.0 release which based on the past of them admitting they work on expansions side by side would be weird

- - - Updated - - -



Are you focusing on the one with 9.3 which had no exact math for the release of 9.3??? The one where even if you do the 7 month math still pushes 10.0 release in the speculated window???

Or are you talking about the one without 9.3 so we get a holiday release??? Unless they were to delay it to Early 2023 Where it would be in the same window as past expansions

Also you seem to be a tad bit confused about the difference between the overall length of the expansion and the length of the end of the expansion. You use the past length of expansions which is pointless so let’s just ignore it like a red headed step child since the pandemic has destroyed the length of the expansion measurement.

Now the reason we use the length of 6-7 months is because that’s what they aim for and it is the only thing we can use because it came from them. The end of expansion measurement is also ok due to the fact both expansions are effected by the delays.

You remember the horse?? You have a second horse with the same speed and it also gets injured...now you can figure how fast it will go after.

So again

How me math wrong?

It definitly had an effect, that is my point. Now they will have a decision to make. Either delay the expansion as well, or as the OP sugests, cut the last major patch to try and make up for the time difference.
One of those will happen, we just don't know which one.