Mega-Thread: Coronavirus Pandemic

[Edge-]

a Florida number truther.

Can you explain what this means? Because I don't know what you mean by this, unless you mean one has followed Florida's reporting pattern and pointed out that their data is always late and unreliable?

[Forogil]

It's really only confusing if you can't read, or can't comprehend what you're reading and are too stupid, ignorant, thick headed, obstinate...or whatever the fuck you want to call it to listen to the experts, and instead take your bathroom FaceBook research session and run with it, all the way to the morgue.... /endrant.

So you don't find it confusing that CDC has issued a statement more than a week ago that they are updating the guidelines without actually updating the guidelines?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...isolation.html
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-guidance.html

There are also other unclear parts in the guidelines.

With that said, it's not all that surprising that people are having trouble considering the US literacy rate is abysmal, and of those that ARE literate, less than 50% actually read higher than a 6th grade level.

Yes, and it is likely to become worse - especially among minorities - due to schools sending children home without having adequate distance learning in place.

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Yeah I recognize that. Have been keeping my distance, only went out to the supermarket. Kept my distance over there and always wore a fresh mask. The only place I might have contracted it, ironically, was probably the vaccination site. It was extremely crowded over there and people were acting all invincible over there.

Ah, thanks for the reminder about the vaccination sites - especially as it takes some time for the vaccines to kick in.
I hope the new site is as uncrowded as the last one.

[Nurasu]

It's really only confusing if you can't read, or can't comprehend what you're reading and are too stupid, ignorant, thick headed, obstinate...or whatever the fuck you want to call it to listen to the experts, and instead take your bathroom FaceBook research session and run with it, all the way to the morgue.... /endrant.

With that said, it's not all that surprising that people are having trouble considering the US literacy rate is abysmal, and of those that ARE literate, less than 50% actually read higher than a 6th grade level.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michael...h=763c4b014c90

https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2019/2019179/index.asp

https://www.thinkimpact.com/literacy-statistics/

Not trying to derail anything, just adding context to the conversation.

The CDC has the same problem as the WHO - they're forced to factor in economic impacts even when directly antithetical to their stated public health goals (like with the WHO actually endorsing the Olympics). It is confusing when your own logic and experience goes against their changing guidelines.

[Forogil]

The CDC has the same problem as the WHO - they're forced to factor in economic impacts even when directly antithetical to their stated public health goals (like with the WHO actually endorsing the Olympics). It is confusing when your own logic and experience goes against their changing guidelines.

I would say that WHO has a different issue than economic impacts. They generally don't want to step on anyone's toes, and since they don't have any actual power they generally praise the ones that do it right, and for the shipwrecks they just try to guide them to shore.

[Edge-]

I would say that WHO has a different issue than economic impacts. They generally don't want to step on anyone's toes, and since they don't have any actual power they generally praise the ones that do it right, and for the shipwrecks they just try to guide them to shore.

Plus the fact that, on top of having no actual authority over these countries, they rely on them to fund their operations. So if they want to continue operating at their current level, they can't risk pissing off major sources of funding like...China.

Which fuckin sucks.

[Rasulis]

I'm seeing a lot of people acting shocked that they got it, but when asked about what precautions they took it turns out they were often extremely lax (not referring to anyone here btw). Thinking surgical masks will protect them from the virus in rooms full of people. Wearing masks when visitors are round but taking them off to eat food. Taking masks off as soon as visitors leave without ventilating rooms. Thinking the vaccine is all they need to be protected. Opening doors to delivery drivers while neither are masked because "it's only a couple of seconds".

Maybe I'm over-precautious? I had a fibre engineer round recently and had all windows open and wore an FFP3 mask the whole time, and kept the windows open and mask on for hours after he left, stayed in another room and only removed the mask to eat a quick meal by the window. I have health issues so perhaps I'm more cautious than most, but it just seems like common sense to me to do these things.

We probably could have been more careful. I am pretty sure that my wife got infected at the Nutcrackers ballet performance on 12/26. On the bright side it got me out of having to fly back to San Diego on standby yesterday morning. We both tested negative this morning. She tested positive Thursday last week, and I tested negative.

Some sporadic data from the internet. A prepub report from South Africa.

Decreased severity of disease during the first global omicron variant covid-19 outbreak in a large hospital in tshwane, south africa.

Some data points from Jama.



Again, keep in mind the population make up of South Africa - much younger and most are reinfection cases. The granularities of the data make a big difference. Noted than even if hospitalization is about a third lower than Delta, if Omicron infectiousness is 10 to 70 times higher, hospitals can still get overwhelmed.

From Jackson Health System.

Across the Jackson Health System hospitals, we currently have 327 patients who have tested positive for COVID-19.

Of those, 187 patients – or 57 percent – are admitted to the hospital primarily for non-COVID reasons.

From San Francisco General Hospital courtesy of Anil Makam, physician at SFGH.

Anil Makam @AnilMakam · Dec 30, 2021
I'm covering @UCSF_DHM_SFGH COVID service tonight & echo very positive news about minimal hospitalization despite rising cases in SF.

Of 19 hospitalizations at SFGH, most are *with* & not *for* COVID: just 4 ICU & 1 unvax ward patient.

Once again, so far Omicron is concentrated in large metro areas with relatively high vaccination rate and previous exposure to Covid. San Francisco is a relatively young city/county (60% of the population are between 18 - 54). High vaccination rate - 81% fully vaccinated, 88% one dose, over 50% boosted. Also because of its population density it has experienced high Covid exposure - 35% of the population had Covid antibody as of February 2021 based on seroprevalence study; 50% of unvaccinated children with no reported previous Covid case had Covid antibodies based on ongoing clinical trial at UCSF pediatric; and 95% of San Franciscan’s blood donors have Covid antibodies. Therefore, it is not surprising that Covid progression in San Francisco closely mimic South Africa. In fact, it appears that the daily new case rate in San Francisco has plateaued at around 1,600 new cases per day. Maybe?

Death for the entire month of December is 11. Three higher than November. Highest Covid mortality for San Francisco was January 2021 with 165 deaths.

[Katchii]

So you don't find it confusing that CDC has issued a statement more than a week ago that they are updating the guidelines without actually updating the guidelines?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...isolation.html
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...-guidance.html

There are also other unclear parts in the guidelines.

Yes, and it is likely to become worse - especially among minorities - due to schools sending children home without having adequate distance learning in place.

1) Those statements were separate, made a week apart. Given that things change and situations and new information becomes available it makes sense that information and guidance will change over time and the newer information will be different than older information. Always use the most current information.

2) Not wanting to derail the thread too much so this will be all I say. I don't disagree with your statement, but it's significantly more complicated than the schools simply providing more materials. Most of the issues my wife's students had, had absolutely nothing to do with lack of resources or access, it was parents not supporting their child's education while distance learning was ongoing and not being present and active in their childs education, with the most egregious cases having parents actively pulling their child away from their online class to do stuff around the house rather than y'know....go to school.

[Edge-]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/04/us-c...l-record-.html

A total of 1,082,549 new coronavirus cases were reported Monday, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, as the highly infectious omicron variant continues to spread throughout the country and beyond.

Shit's getting bad. We're now over 1M cases, which is nearly double what I can tell the previous 1-day high was which was (580K...on Dec. 30, 2021), which itself beat the previous record of 488K set the day before.

For context: 488K was still nearly double the cases we were seeing last winter.

Get your fuckin vaccines. Avoid large gatherings. Wear your mask and distance. Get tested before you go to any gatherings to be extra safe.

[PhaelixWW]

I live in NJ. I am not leaving my house. I'm not going to be part of the problem.

That's good. Things are not good in New Jersey right now (not that they're much less bad in the rest of the country).

New COVID hospitalizations in New Jersey as of incomplete data a few days ago:




Hopefully this is mostly omicron, and hopefully omicron really is less dangerous. Regardless, hospitals are even more full now than ever before, and at a time when many of the hospital staff are sick themselves.

[Zantos]

Maybe I'm over-precautious?

You might be. Removing a mask to eat is basically a must to eat. Also, the masks are more to stop the spread. If you're the only one wearing it, its not going to be nearly as effective if the others aren't wearing it. The entire function of them is to limit the droplets someone expels when they cough. No mask is going to protect you in a room full of people if they are sick and not wearing a thing.

I also wouldn't go so far as ventilating the room. Your ac should be doing that. Yet again, the viral load can stay in ac ducts that aren't filtered.

The biggest issue is people thinking the vaccine is all the need. It was never meant to be the only thing you do. Masks and social distancing were always supposed to be followed as well. People just aren't. Now we are seeing skyrocketing cases as a result of no one giving a crap and no one trying to even remotely stop this any longer. The proof is the 1mil cases on Monday, yet we have No states even remotely talking about new precautions. Its asinine.

[PhaelixWW]

Shit's getting bad. We're now over 1M cases, which is nearly double what I can tell the previous 1-day high was which was (580K...on Dec. 30, 2021), which itself beat the previous record of 488K set the day before.

That number is a bit misleading because it includes backfill from previous days. When the cases are more properly attributed to the testing days, it's a lot more balanced.

Worldometers has those days as:

• 12/29 - 476730
• 12/30 - 588681
• 12/31 - 577966 (~holiday)
• 1/1 - 466583 (holiday / weekend)
• 1/2 - 389061 (weekend)
• 1/3 - 426051 (weekend)

That's still light on the holiday and weekend report days, naturally, and will almost certainly be up today, but it's not as lopsided as the JH data.

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Of course, things are still getting worse worldwide.

• UK posted a new record at 219k.
• France posted a new record at 272k.
• Italy posted a new record at 171k.
• Greece, Australia, Denmark... new records

Greece literally had 1 out of every 200 people in the country test positive with a new case in one day.

[Gaidax]

This time it seems we're giving up on trying to contain it - some projections say that ~50% pop will catch it within month.

There is 60+ yo 4th shot vaccination going on, which I am sure will be extended to more ages soon-ish, but it seems that this time around it will be left to spread without lockdown.

Maybe govt banks on vaccination + it being lighter version. No idea.

[Zantos]

This time it seems we're giving up on trying to contain it - some projections say that ~50% pop will catch it within month.

There is 60+ yo 4th shot vaccination going on, which I am sure will be extended to more ages soon-ish, but it seems that this time around it will be left to spread without lockdown.

Maybe govt banks on vaccination + it being lighter version. No idea.

It would be dumb of them to bank on that. Just through the numbers alone there will be higher hospitalizations and deaths as a result, regardless of vaccination status. Though, I think this is more scary just because its a lot more chances for it to mutate.

[Gaidax]

It would be dumb of them to bank on that. Just through the numbers alone there will be higher hospitalizations and deaths as a result, regardless of vaccination status. Though, I think this is more scary just because its a lot more chances for it to mutate.

Don't know, from the numbers I see, the lockdown should be happening right now or else it's pointless.

It really spikes way harder than any other wave. It's already peak numbers in fraction of the time.

[Forogil]

1) Those statements were separate, made a week apart. Given that things change and situations and new information becomes available it makes sense that information and guidance will change over time and the newer information will be different than older information. Always use the most current information.

You are missing the point.

One of them is the guidelines, which has been updated before - but not this time.
The other is the announcement of the change of the guidelines a week ago, that still isn't fully implemented happened.

Searching www.cdc.gov for "covid quarantine" gives the non-updated guidelines as first answer, and there are also external links to the old answer.
You shouldn't have to search their entire site to find the most up-to-date answer - as you should only find the current guidelines (except for historical documents clearly marked as such). The case itself isn't that problematic, but it is an indication of some underlying problem.

[Kathandira]

That's good. Things are not good in New Jersey right now (not that they're much less bad in the rest of the country).

New COVID hospitalizations in New Jersey as of incomplete data a few days ago:




Hopefully this is mostly omicron, and hopefully omicron really is less dangerous. Regardless, hospitals are even more full now than ever before, and at a time when many of the hospital staff are sick themselves.

Staff is sick, and some are giving up. Just had a friend put in her two weeks. This pandemic is running them all ragged, and some are fed up. Which obviously will be terrible if there aren't enough nurses to care for patients.

[Katchii]

You are missing the point.

One of them is the guidelines, which has been updated before - but not this time.
The other is the announcement of the change of the guidelines a week ago, that still isn't fully implemented happened.

Searching www.cdc.gov for "covid quarantine" gives the non-updated guidelines as first answer, and there are also external links to the old answer.
You shouldn't have to search their entire site to find the most up-to-date answer - as you should only find the current guidelines (except for historical documents clearly marked as such). The case itself isn't that problematic, but it is an indication of some underlying problem.

I will agree with you on this point then...grudgingly. The site is more convoluted than it should be.

[Edge-]

Staff is sick, and some are giving up. Just had a friend put in her two weeks. This pandemic is running them all ragged, and some are fed up. Which obviously will be terrible if there aren't enough nurses to care for patients.

I continue to hold the view that if you have covid, are unvaccinated, go to the hospital, and you/your family/friends are shitty assholes to the hospital staff, that they should have every right to kick you the fuck out. Deliver care, even for the retarded anti-vaxxers, until the patients become abusive, once that happens the hospital staff becomes the priority and the abusive patient/family are discharged. Got a tube stuck down your throat to breathe? Maybe your family should have thought of that before they assaulted a nurse/doctor for refusing to administer ivermectin.

[Forogil]

Greece literally had 1 out of every 200 people in the country test positive with a new case in one day.

And to show the speed Greece was on a downward trend about 2 weeks ago. (The positivity rate has also increased.)

But hospitalizations still seem to lower this time per case, at least in Europe.

[PhaelixWW]

But hospitalizations still seem to lower this time per case, at least in Europe.

That's to be expected, no matter what, simply because omicron is causing a lot of breakthrough infections as well as larger numbers of infections in younger people.

We can still hope that it will prove to be lower in the older, unvaccinated population, as well.

Regardless, even if the majority of the hospitalizations don't require a ventilator, it's stressing the healthcare capacity to extremes, which is bad.

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And to show the speed Greece was on a downward trend about 2 weeks ago. (The positivity rate has also increased.)

Yeah, it's crazy. Prior to Christmas, Greece's record for new cases was under 9k. They just reported a 50k today.