Mega-Thread: 2020 United States General Election

[Machismo]

I did not post PA because the early votes are only up to 27.3% of 2016 total votes. However, Democrats are leading by 48.9%. The GOP will need to win the remaining votes by around 18% just to break even.

I agree that Florida will be close. However, Biden does not need Florida to win the election. It is not in his critical path.

Biden doesn't need Florida, but if he doesn't win Florida (Fuck Florida), then he "needs" Pennsylvania.

[Rasulis]

Biden doesn't need Florida, but if he doesn't win Florida (Fuck Florida), then he "needs" Pennsylvania.

I agree. Keep in mind that Trump only won PA by 44,000 votes, a margin of less than 1%. Right now, with 27.3% of the 2016 total vote count in, Dem is leading by 48.9 pts. That is a huge lead.

[Machismo]

I agree. Keep in mind that Trump only won PA by 44,000 votes, a margin of less than 1%. Right now, with 27.3% of the 2016 total vote count in, Dem is leading by 48.9 pts. That is a huge lead.

The Dems are definitely motivated, I agree.

But, the worst thing they can do, is get too confident. I don't think this is the same as 2016, but I have lost faith in human decency over the past 4 years.

[Edge-]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/...a-single-voter

“One of Biden’s best points was when he said all these attacks back and forth about my family and [Trump’s] family, they don’t matter. What matters is your family. That may have been Biden’s best moment, actually,” Cruz said.

Ted Cruz doesn't think the Hunter Biden attacks have legs, and praised Biden for sticking by his family.

Ted Cruz's wife and father, will be disappointed to hear that Cruz apparently didn't hold this view 4 years ago when Trump insulted the both of them and Cruz went on to phone bank for Trump.

[Rasulis]

California trivia. The largest-ever presidential victory margin in California came 100 years ago during the 1920 election when Republican Warren G. Harding beat Democrat James Cox by 42 points. Trump is well on his way to break that record.

[PhaelixWW]

Biden doesn't need Florida, but if he doesn't win Florida (Fuck Florida), then he "needs" Pennsylvania.

He doesn't even really "need" Pennsylvania. He needs MI/WI/MN, but as he's leading in those states by 8.0/7.1/8.3%, those are fairly safe.

He basically just needs any one of the following: PA/AZ (most likely options) or FL/NC/GA/IA/OH.

[Breccia]

It ain’t over till the fat lady sings.

What you describe in your post is a reason that the Party of Trump have shot themselves in the bone spurs.

If, as you're suggesting, Democrats get out and vote early, it's Republicans who will deal with the cluster of sick people all voting at once Tuesday. If they see long lines, give up and go home, the Democrat advantage lingers. If they see posts like yours, they might not go at all.

It's yet more good news that isn't a mortal blow. Everyone should vote -- even if I disagree with you.

- - - Updated - - -

California trivia. The largest-ever presidential victory margin in California came 100 years ago during the 1920 election when Republican Warren G. Harding beat Democrat James Cox by 42 points. Trump is well on his way to break that record.

I'd love to see the link for that, because it sounds hiliarious.

California was never going to vote for Trump, of course.

[Machismo]

He doesn't even really "need" Pennsylvania. He needs MI/WI/MN, but as he's leading in those states by 8.0/7.1/8.3%, those are fairly safe.

He basically just needs any one of the following: PA/AZ (most likely options) or FL/NC/GA/IA/OH.

Florida has shown it is unreliable, so shouldn't ever be counted on.

He can theoretically win without both PA and Fl, but that is a very narrow line, that leaves almost no room for error, and requires that he pick up Arizona (or another less-likely) state. In the end, Pennsylvania becomes the key, because it's one that is more likely to go blue, and one that isn't quite so fucked up when it comes to sticking it to voters on Election Day.

[Smitzelplix]

So instead he mixed him up with the interviewer. That's much better.

How do you know it was a mix up and not his stutter that he is well known for having?

[PhaelixWW]

California trivia. The largest-ever presidential victory margin in California came 100 years ago during the 1920 election when Republican Warren G. Harding beat Democrat James Cox by 42 points. Trump is well on his way to break that record.

I'd love to see the link for that, because it sounds hiliarious.

California was never going to vote for Trump, of course.

You can sort by win percentage and do some simple math, but he's quite correct.

[Rasulis]

I'd love to see the link for that, because it sounds hiliarious.

California was never going to vote for Trump, of course.

NPA is kicking GOP in California right now. That's how bad it is for the GOP in California. Based on past elections, California NPA voters generally break 65 - 35 in favor of Democrats. Likely closer to 70 - 30 in the age of Trump. BTW, Bernie Sanders won California Primary on the power of NPA, or No Party Preference, voters. So they tend to lean left pretty far. Not likely to vote for Trump.

[alexw]

Wonder what went wrong with America and then move on with my life.

Biden. All data points to a Biden win. It's always possible for Trump to still win but at this point he's definitely the less favored.

What's probably a more important question is who will control the Senate. If the Dems can grab the Senate which is going to be tough then there is an actual chance to rewrite the trajectory of the federal government. However if the GOP maintains control there will be little last things the Dems can do...although having a rational calm leader through a pandemic will do incredible things for all of us.

Grabbing the senate isn't going to be tough. The Dems have a 75% chance of that according to fivethirty eight. The tough part is getting enough seats so that they can still outvote 1-3 defectors on contentious issues.

So if Dems get 50 senators but control the senate via the VP then expanding the supreme court is extremely extremely unlikely to happen. However if they get 53+ then expanding the supreme court will be in play.

[Smitzelplix]

This is in regards to the Supreme Court's ruling that Wisconsin can't count ballots after election day.

Justice Kavanaugh Caught Cherry-Picking Line from a Law Review Article That Contradicted His Conclusion

[Edge-]

This is in regards to the Supreme Court's ruling that Wisconsin can't count ballots after election day.

Justice Kavanaugh Caught Cherry-Picking Line from a Law Review Article That Contradicted His Conclusion

The ruling doesn't make a lick of sense anyways. Yeah, we may not know on election night. And that's just fine. Especially during a pandemic where people are voting remotely, many for the first time.

The desire of conservatives to disenfranchise as many voters as they possibly can continues to astound me. The overt hostility towards voting and, you know, democracy in our democratic republic is beyond depressing.

[Rasulis]

This is in regards to the Supreme Court's ruling that Wisconsin can't count ballots after election day.

Justice Kavanaugh Caught Cherry-Picking Line from a Law Review Article That Contradicted His Conclusion

It probably does not matter. Wisconsin early turnout is already at 50% of 2016 total turnout. Wisconsin does not report ballots by party preference. However, exit polls of early voters show Dem is way ahead at the moment. GOP will be playing catch up on Nov 3. It does not look like there is enough votes left for GOP to catch up. I'll find that early voters poll and post it here.

[Edge-]

Reminder: Senate Republicans can find the time to rush through a SCOTUS justice who will have no immediately meaningful impact on Americans suffering during a pandemic.

Senate Republicans can not find the time to work with Democrats, and more specifically their own party in the White House, to pass pandemic relief that's desperately needed by millions.

Republicans are playing the long game, and they don't care if that means weaponizing and casually ignoring the suffering of Americans.

[Smitzelplix]

It probably does not matter. Wisconsin early turnout is already at 50% of 2016 total turnout. Wisconsin does not report ballots by party preference. However, exit polls of early voters show Dem is way ahead at the moment. GOP will be playing catch up on Nov 3. It does not look like there is enough votes left for GOP to catch up. I'll find that early voters poll and post it here.

You know it would be hilarious if Biden is the winner on election night, but not all mail in ballots have been counted yet. I can just imagine Trump doing a complete 180 on mail in ballots after shitting on them for months.

[Edge-]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7k9p...ecting-ballots

CA Republicans may be illegally harvesting (there are legal and illegal ways) votes and misrepresenting their unofficial ballot boxes as official ones.

"We have received reports of a political club at Leisure World that has a ballot drop box. I would like additional information about this as it is concerning and can cause confusion for voters," Espie Martinez, of the registrar of voters, wrote, apparently to a Leisure World representative (the name was redacted on the email). That person responded, stating that the box was owned by a "Republican club," that the box had been "cleared" with the Registrar of Voters, and that it was "legal and permissible."

However, Neal Kelley, the registrar of voters for the county, said in an email to Martinez that the box is "in violation of CA law" unless it was staffed at all times. The Republican Club eventually agreed to change its policies to be in compliance with California law, according to a back-and-forth email exchange included in the documents. The registrar of voters said that it had worked with Leisure World to install an official collection box to prevent this sort of thing from happening.

Because they're still putting up illegal, fake "official" ballot boxes that could very well be used to steal votes.

Republicans. Hate. Democracy. And. Don't. Care. About. Laws. Or. Cheating.

That's all.

[Howel]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7k9p...ecting-ballots

CA Republicans may be illegally harvesting (there are legal and illegal ways) votes and misrepresenting their unofficial ballot boxes as official ones.

Because they're still putting up illegal, fake "official" ballot boxes that could very well be used to steal votes.

Republicans. Hate. Democracy. And. Don't. Care. About. Laws. Or. Cheating.

That's all.

Weren't they already told once to cut that shit out?

[Waniou]

You know it would be hilarious if Biden is the winner on election night, but not all mail in ballots have been counted yet. I can just imagine Trump doing a complete 180 on mail in ballots after shitting on them for months.

Given how this election is happening, that kinda needs to happen because otherwise, Trump and his supporters will call the election illegitimate.