Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fuiking]

I really wish people would stop entertaining the idea of nukes.
No Russia is not going to use a nuke over some land in Ukraine. No one is going to allow Russia to become the first nation since WW2 to use a nuclear weapon in war.

It
Is
Not
Going
To
Happen

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

[Iphie]

My guess is that if Putin did the same thing to the Donbas, as he did with Crimea, organize a fake referendum and then annex it, NATO wouldn't be so helpful to Ukraine as they are now.
Putin overreached when he invaded the other area's.

That seems to be an accepted theory, yes. The problem with that would have been ramped up NATO support outside of those areas so then the Donbass would have been the last thing he could have gotten as the rest would have had their defenses shored up and since putin is on notice he wants to grab as much as he can. (On notice = he doesn't have eternal life and is about 70 so his health will fail at some point if it isn't already failing.)

[Lahis]

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

[Rustedsaint]

Personally I would accept an actual referdum if it was overseen by a group of neutral observers and Russia withdrew all their troops

[Gorsameth]

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

Ukraine has already stuck inside Russian territory in the past. Didn't nuke then. won't nuke now.

- - - Updated - - -

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

I suppose I will be happy if it happens that we are still around to tell me I was wrong.

[Makabreska]

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

Why are you turning into Yuppie with this nukes hysteria?

[Kralljin]

Nazi Germany did have chemical wepons, like Sarin. But did never use it.

Yeah, because they've been "made aware of" that the Allies had a huge stockpile of chemicals weapons as well and would use them if the Nazis started using it.

If Russia starts using nukes, then Ukraine likely just has to ask for any weapon system that's not banned by any convention or treaty to receive it.

[Azadina]

Yeah, because they've been "made aware of" that the Allies had a huge stockpile of chemicals weapons as well and would use them if the Nazis started using it.

If Russia starts using nukes, then Ukraine likely just has to ask for any weapon system that's not banned by any convention or treaty to receive it.

Then their occupation of Ukraine will be terminated in extremely swift fashion. West simply cannot afford to let that slide with anything less than moving in, and removing their presence.

[Kralljin]

Then their occupation of Ukraine will be terminated in extremely swift fashion. West simply cannot afford to let that slide with anything less than moving in, and removing their presence.

I do not see the West ever intervening in Ukraine unless Russia makes the first move by directly attacking a Nato member.

Ukraine is at the end of the day not a Nato member and intervening there would just turn any Nato country into a legitimate military target.

[Corvus]

I do not see the West ever intervening in Ukraine unless Russia makes the first move by directly attacking a Nato member.

Ukraine is at the end of the day not a Nato member and intervening there would just turn any Nato country into a legitimate military target.

If Russia uses a nuke then the west and NATO will have to respond. China probably will as well. Otherwise it opens up the pandora's box of nuclear terrorism and blackmail. Russia can not be allowed to use one to try and blackmail Ukraine and the west at all. The US has made it abundantly clear on a number of occasions to Russia that if they use one there will be serious consequences.

[Collegeguy]

Im saving that statement just in case they really have a pants on head moment... Just hope and pray to whatever is out there they dont.

I don't think the world would sit idly by if they do. It would be unprecedented for an aggressor, unprovoked, to use a nuclear weapon simply because they are losing. The world can't ignore this, and Russia would need to be put down.

[Corvus]

The state of some of the weapons being handed out to the newly mobilised is....not great.

[Iphie]

The state of some of the weapons being handed out to the newly mobilised is....not great.

This almost makes: "Wait till the gun explodes in the hands of the russian.". a valid option for the Ukrainians. Sending out conscripts with this kind of crap should be a crime in and of itself...

[Kralljin]

If Russia uses a nuke then the west and NATO will have to respond. China probably will as well.

They will, but i think by giving Ukraine basically every weapon they want, barring direct aid.
China and India will very likely cut any ties to Russia, they can currently still weasel around with arguing for talks and compromise, but that goes out the window the second Russia drops nukes on Ukrainian troops.

Then Russia is isolated from any country that could make a difference, which means that keeping this war going conventionally will be next to impossible, while Ukraine might also start receiving aid from not just the west but pretty much every country.

My main argument against any interference from the west is the simple fact that i don't see how this is going to end.
Nato troops in Ukraine push out Russia - then what?
You have Nato troops on the border to a nation that Nato is at war with which already has shown their willingness to drop nukes.
At this point, the next logical step would be to go on the offensive and actually overthrow the goverment in Russia to end the threat for good, but that would mean giving Russia every justification to use their entire nuclear arsenal.

The only way i could see this going well if every country around the globe heeds the call and throws their weight behind it, but even then you'd still need the tech to intercept or disable any nuclear launches on Russia's side, just in case the russian military is willing to carry out the orders to use strategic nukes.

[Poopymonster]

Plus I am not sure if more boots is exactly what Russia needs. If you are having trouble feeding, clothing, and warming 20 people it only gets harder when you make that 20 a 100. Nukes aren't exactly a weapon you want to use in a war right outside your boarder. It just takes a change in direction of the wind for the weapon being just as effective on you as it was on your enemy.

The disposables won't have a 0% mortality rate. Before that they are a source of warmth, after that strip the bodies and create layers of clothing. Repurpose them further and you solve the problem entirely. They ARE sending fresh food.
You just have to act like someone who is dangerously insane, has just been released from prison and told "Bad guys that way, go have fun."
Coincidentally, Russia has already done just that.

[Finlandia WOAT]

After the "referendum" all bets are off since Ukraine "attacking" "Russian" territory could be labeled as "existencial threat".

At that point it is up to Yesmen around Putin to say no for once.

Imo the point of the fake referenda isn't to use nukes, it's to let Putin send conscripts into Ukraine since by Russian law they can only be sent inside Russia during times of peace, and he still hasn't declared war.

He knows Ukraine isn't going to stop attacking even after he declares Kherson and Zaporizhia and Donetsk Oblasts are now part of Russia. So it's put up or shut up.

[Marcellus1986]

What’s going on in China? Apparently Xi Jinping has been placed under house arrest.

Not confirmed by any western media so far but interesting developments vis a vis China and Russia’s relationship.

[D Luniz]

FFS
Nukes wont be used by Russia because there is no one to use them on
Putin WANTS Ukraine, not a poisoned unfarmable wasteland known as the "Ukrainian exclusion zone"
that leaves NATO, which, is a murder-suicide pact, and if that were Putin's goal, he would have kicked that hornet's nest months ago.

the nukes threats is mostly in the hopes that he can get the most isolationist groups some political power since both the US (Nov 8th is just 45ish days away) and the UK (new PM is trying to consolidate power) could turn on a dime politically, and without that military supply, Ukraine goes from fighting and winning, to occupied insurgency hoping to one day be free again.

[Saradain]

What’s going on in China? Apparently Xi Jinping has been placed under house arrest.

Not confirmed by any western media so far but interesting developments vis a vis China and Russia’s relationship.

I've seen this claim several times now, I have no idea why people imagine Winnie the Pooh would just be arrested...and how is that related to Russia?

Last time I checked, Xi holds absolute power.

[D Luniz]

I've seen this claim several times now, I have no idea why people imagine Winnie the Pooh would just be arrested...and how is that related to Russia?

Last time I checked, Xi holds absolute power.

to be fair, The Party holds absolute power, they just see Xi's view of where to go as most acceptable. Dont think for a second they wouldn't toss him if they think they need to.