Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Kaleredar]

What do you suggest the solution is aside from diplomacy? without a diplomatic compromise we are talking about years of fighting maybe it will go down to a not so hot war but it will never end while people continue to flee the country. We may all be gleeful at Russia's failure but Ukraine has lost 10 million people and rising those refugees may not come back that's talent and population you can't just replace not to mention the destruction year long fighting would cause.

When Russia "agrees" to a ceasefire and then immediately starts blowing civilians up again, it should be fairly evident that "diplomatic" solutions aren't exactly feasible.

Ukraine has drawn their line in the sand, which appears to be "Russia, fuck off back to Russia," and they so far seem willing to fight for that line. Telling them "no no no, you should give Russia what it wants, maybe disarm... you know, to save yourselves!" when Russia has proven they are bad actors whose word is worth dirt only means giving Russia more time to prepare to invade Ukraine again, likely with a far more aggressively destructive and well-trained force.

This period, right now, is as unprepared for conducting an invasion as Russia is going to be. They had no real time to pivot their economy away from sanctions and they seem to have hit them as quite a surprise. Their foundering economy coupled with having to utilize old, dilapidated technology with a wholly disorganized military that they have to constantly keep applying pressure with or else risk the whole invasion attempt collapsing means they have no time to address any of these issues internally.

Give Russia a time to recuperate and they'll use it only to modernize their equipment, plan better supply lines, train soldiers and, pivot their economy away from international dependencies and formalize economic allegiances so that their next invasion is that much more rapid, brutal, and deadly.

It seems fairly clear that Russia will invade again unless they physically can't, either because sanctions have rotted their country or because Ukraine has secured military allegiances with some powerful friends. Anything beyond those two things happening, even with some sort of "Russian peace agreement" not worth the paper it's written on, and we'll just be hearing about more blown up train stations, dead civilians and mass graves in five years.

[Corvus]

The speed of the harpoons isn't quite as much as an issue as they are sea-skimmers (like about a metre above sea level), making them harder to spot and target.

The UK has also said they will be sending 120 armoured vehicles. BoJo may be a clown but he has been very supportive of Ukraine.

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S&P downgrades Russia's rating, making default likely. The first time since 1917.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-...ost_type=share

[PhaelixWW]

Harpoon has coastal defense versions

You can launch them from trucks

Gee, guys, it's not like I wrote...

They don't exactly control a lot of the coastline

...specifically to address that.

But they're only supposed to have a ground- or ship-launched range of up to ~85 miles. That doesn't exactly cover a whole lot of territory in the Black Sea, though. That doesn't seem like it can effectively break the blockade, but I could very well be wrong about that as I don't really know modern sea warfare.

The air-launched harpoons get a bit more range, and obviously the fighters themselves can make up whatever difference is necessary.

[Corvus]

Russia's foreign ministry is now saying that Latvia has neo-nazi preferences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani...0%2Fframe.html

[Zaydin]

Russia's foreign ministry is now saying that Latvia has neo-nazi preferences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani...0%2Fframe.html

Insert Syndrome "When everyone is a neo-Nazi, nobody will be"

[PhaelixWW]

Insert Syndrome "When everyone is a neo-Nazi, nobody will be"

Excerpt from Russian dictionary:

"neo-Nazi (noun/adj.): non-Russian"

[Corvus]

Interesting read from ISW on the current situation.

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...ssment-april-9

It could be months before Russia has rebuilt it's battered mechanised forces to levels to have any impact on Donbas and years to rebuild regiments and brigades.

[zorkuus]

Russia's foreign ministry is now saying that Latvia has neo-nazi preferences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani...0%2Fframe.html

Interesting how these nazis see nazis everywhere.

Everyone's been saying it but... Putler won't stop at Ukraine, if he isn't stopped militarily.

[PhaelixWW]

Interesting how these nazis see nazis everywhere.

Everyone's been saying it but... Putler won't stop at Ukraine, if he isn't stopped militarily.

If he attacks Latvia and triggers NATO's Article 5, that'll certainly lead to him being stopped militarily.

[zorkuus]

If he attacks Latvia and triggers NATO's Article 5, that'll certainly lead to him being stopped militarily.

He will attack a non-NATO country before trying his luck with a NATO one.

[PhaelixWW]

He will attack a non-NATO country before trying his luck with a NATO one.

There aren't many of those left. He already has his foothold in Georgia. He can't realistically get to Moldova without taking Ukraine first. Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are all friendly towards Russia.

[Iphie]

He will attack a non-NATO country before trying his luck with a NATO one.

You mean: "another non-NATO country" right? I mean Ukraine is not NATO. I also think he'd not go for an EU country, as that risks a military response from EU countries who ARE members of NATO. That leaves very few targets. Provided of course that the Russian military doesn't have to lick it's wounds too much after this.

There aren't many of those left. He already has his foothold in Georgia. He can't realistically get to Moldova without taking Ukraine first. Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan are all friendly towards Russia.

Myeah, but the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox church has said Russia should take back Kazakhstan, and Kazakhstan supports the sanctions on Russia. Additionally the Kazakh president announced his intention to reform:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...mit-his-powers

So there's that.

[Santti]

Russia's foreign ministry is now saying that Latvia has neo-nazi preferences.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani...0%2Fframe.html

It's just more talk directed at their own citizens, in an attempt to try to justify Russian military adventures. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Draco-Onis]

When Russia "agrees" to a ceasefire and then immediately starts blowing civilians up again, it should be fairly evident that "diplomatic" solutions aren't exactly feasible.

Ukraine has drawn their line in the sand, which appears to be "Russia, fuck off back to Russia," and they so far seem willing to fight for that line. Telling them "no no no, you should give Russia what it wants, maybe disarm... you know, to save yourselves!" when Russia has proven they are bad actors whose word is worth dirt only means giving Russia more time to prepare to invade Ukraine again, likely with a far more aggressively destructive and well-trained force.

This period, right now, is as unprepared for conducting an invasion as Russia is going to be. They had no real time to pivot their economy away from sanctions and they seem to have hit them as quite a surprise. Their foundering economy coupled with having to utilize old, dilapidated technology with a wholly disorganized military that they have to constantly keep applying pressure with or else risk the whole invasion attempt collapsing means they have no time to address any of these issues internally.

Give Russia a time to recuperate and they'll use it only to modernize their equipment, plan better supply lines, train soldiers and, pivot their economy away from international dependencies and formalize economic allegiances so that their next invasion is that much more rapid, brutal, and deadly.

It seems fairly clear that Russia will invade again unless they physically can't, either because sanctions have rotted their country or because Ukraine has secured military allegiances with some powerful friends. Anything beyond those two things happening, even with some sort of "Russian peace agreement" not worth the paper it's written on, and we'll just be hearing about more blown up train stations, dead civilians and mass graves in five years.

Any deal would have to be backed with security guarantees from the international community in exchange for sanction relief. Ukraine doesn't have unlimited time either, the general public will get tired of hearing about it and the consequences of this war (higher cost of living) will be taken out on the governments in charge. The midterms are this year after that the US will be consumed by the Trump 2024 clown show. There are elections going on all over the EU, the world is possibly facing an Arab spring type of backlash due to this. We got tired of hearing about COVID in less than a year Ukraine isn't going to hold our attention for that long, foreign affairs seldom decide elections versus people's pocket book.

The longer this goes on the more unstable Ukraine's support will be, of course the same goes for Russia's domestic issues but they are a dictatorship and sanctions for the most part do not dethrone these types of regimes.

[Magnagarde]

Lol I didn't realise people still made this wildly inaccurate joke.

It's a good joke and this occasion is perfect for using it.

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..... France has the highest battle victories in history. Plus the term "You shall not pass" comes from the French term "They shall not pass" from WWI.
This "French always surrender" bullshit is so old.

I guess De Gaulle's "You shall not pass!" line was in the La Manche?

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Yeah, but right now Macron is not doing the meme any favors. Macron is a diplomat, who seems to be struggling to come to terms with the idea that there is no longer a diplomatic solution in Ukraine. His attempts to negotiate Putin seemed like the responsible thing to do at the time, but it looking increasingly naive in retrospect. France is yet to provide substantial military support to Ukraine, despite the vast majority of its allies already doing so. French caution doesn't look like much of a virtue, as it becomes increasingly clear that now is in fact the right time to take risks, and that diplomacy is not a feasible solution.

That is precisely what I was getting at.

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The whole "Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys" crap got revived due to the War in Iraq and France rightfully objecting to the flimsy justification the Bush Administration was using to justify the invasion.

American conservatives have really never let go of it.

The French are usually joked with in Europe when it comes to their WW II surrender. It's no big deal.

I don't know what the American conservative take on France is, but I'd suppose it is highly positive considering the role the French played as America's ally in their war for independence and beyond.

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That's not even going into how vital the French resistance was in WWII not to mention saving hundreds of thousands if not millions of Jews by sabotaging Hitler's concentration camp system. France's role in WWII has always been underappreciated because of their surrender but students of history know otherwise.

The most efficient and significant partisan movements were in SE and Eastern Europe. Yugoslavia and Greece are great examples, especially Yugoslavia. France, in comparison, as a country with a much higher number of people, did comparatively much less. France is rightfully not the first country that comes to people's minds when mentioning resistance/partisan warfare. The French prefered saving their cities and infrastructure instead of liberation, which came their way from the outside anyway.

[unfilteredJW]

It's a good joke and this occasion is perfect for using it.

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I guess De Gaulle's "You shall not pass!" line was in the La Manche?

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That is precisely what I was getting at.

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The French are usually joked with in Europe when it comes to their WW II surrender. It's no big deal.

I don't know what the American conservative take on France is, but I'd suppose it is highly positive considering the role the French played as America's ally in their war for independence and beyond.

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The most efficient and significant partisan movements were in SE and Eastern Europe. Yugoslavia and Greece are great examples, especially Yugoslavia. France, in comparison, as a country with a much higher number of people, did comparatively much less. France is rightfully not the first country that comes to people's minds when mentioning resistance/partisan warfare. The French prefered saving their cities and infrastructure instead of liberation, which came their way from the outside anyway.

When shown to make a historically inaccurate joke, double down on the ignorance.

Now THAT is something worth laughing at.

[Corvus]

The Polish resistance was so large and organised it had its own postal service.

[Mihalik]

The French are usually joked with in Europe when it comes to their WW II surrender. It's no big deal.

If by "Europe" you mean the English, sure. After all...Hiding on their island and waiting for others to do do 90% of the fighting before claiming victory at the end has been a long standing English tradition.

Because throughout Europe the French surrendered to the Germans about as often as everyone else, not to mention that they rampaged their way across Europe a few times themselves. When half of Europe celebrates its "independence day" or equivalent is usually independence from the French or the ending of a French occupation.

But yeah, the French being so half hearted in their support for Ukraine is both a mistake and a national disgrace. Guess it's hard to stand up to a fascist genocidal aggressor when something like 35% of your population wants to vote for one of two genocidal fascists.

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The Polish resistance was so large and organised it had its own postal service.

I think an element that enabled the scale and extent of the Polish resistance was the fact that after the surrender, there was no Polish puppet state, and the "government" organisations put in place by the Nazis was mostly interested in murdering Poles and looting the country, beyond that they would do little in the way of actual administration.

This kinda meant that people had to do it themselves so to say.

In contrast in France or Denmark or Norway the Germans would put in place puppet governments that claimed legitimate legal and administrative continuity, and while they were also looted and forced to collaborate with the Germans economically, the national administrations still continued to run the state, there were fire departments, postal services, police departments, notaries, courts, pensions etc.

[Finlandia WOAT]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...50592300658690

Ru roh, the Kremlin has found more Nazis in Latvia!

[Mihalik]

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/sta...50592300658690

Ru roh, the Kremlin has found more Nazis in Latvia!

It's becoming clear to me that another thing I was wrong about was that I thought that the Russian high command just lost control of its undisciplined horde which then started war crime rampaging, instead the war crimes, the murders, the executions are ordered from top down. It's their policy. It's the Russian warlords (I refuse to call them generals) just taking out their frustrations on civilians.

What a shit hole of a country.

@Easo where are you? Come tell us again how the Russians aren't barbarians? I'm still pissed at all the bullshit we had to eat from you. Sup? Have you been enlisted and sent to the front?

Russians are not barbarians, but they will be much harsher than American troops in Iraq, for example. Plus you have to understand that like half of Ukraine won't even really care, literally, as long as they are left alone. And since that half is quite a bit Russian...

Remember that?